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Myths Of Retirement Planning
- Written by Lance Roberts | Monday, June 20, 2011
I have received several financial plans over the last few weeks that have been prepared for individuals by CFP's and advisors that are fraught with a variety of financial mistakes. Unfortunately, most of these "financial plans" have been for the purpose of selling annuities. I wanted to go through some very basic concepts that you need to consider when planning for your retirement whether it is in 5 years or 25 years and more importantly dispel a lot of myths.
The Market Does Not Return 8% Per Year
One of the biggest mistakes that people make is assuming that the markets will grow at a consistent rate over the given time frame to retirement. There is a massive difference between compounded returns and real returns as noted in the chart. The end result of both series of numbers is an annual rate of return of 8%. However, in the "real return" column the returns have to be exceptionally high on a consistent basis in order to average out to the 8% compounded return - and returns like that don't happen to often. MOST IMPORTANTLY - while both sets of numbers grew at 8% - your money didn't.
This is one of the biggest mistakes that are made in financial planning which is NOT to include variable rates of return in your planning process. The draw downs on your principal investment are the most dangerous part of retirement planning.
Furthermore, do not choose rates of returns for planning purposes that are outside historical norms. Stocks tend to grow roughly at the rate of GDP plus dividends. Into today's world GDP is expected grow at roughly 4% or less in the future with dividends around 2% currently. The difference between 8% returns and 6% is quite substantial. Also, in order to achieve 8% in a 6% return environment you are trying to increase your return over the market by 33% - that requires you to on an astonishing level of risk to outperform the markets by that degree which means that the losses you will take when the markets correct will be outsized as well.
Plan for realistic returns in the future as well as adjust and account for market swings that will impact the ending value of your money.
Most Likely You Aren't Saving Enough
Here are some shocking statistics for you. The average salary in America is about $53,000 a year as per the US Census Bureau.
There are two things to take away from this chart. The first is that assuming your salary is going to rise until you retire is not a realistic assumption, except for potentially cost of living adjustments, as most of American workers cap out their earnings potential in their late 40's. The other statistic that goes along with this is that the average American has ONLY about ONE years salary saved up for retirement.
In order to effectively be planning and saving for your retirement you need to be saving 30-40% of your gross income and living on the balance. The order of savings is as follows
- Fully fund your retirement plan at work
- If you qualify - contribute to a Roth or Spousal IRA
- Save 1/2 of what you contribute to your retirement plan into an after tax investment/savings account
- Overfund a permanent life insurance policy
In reality, most Americans are woefully underprepared for retirement and are hoping that Social Security or their pension will provide the social safety net they need to make it through. There is a high probability that in coming years that the massive underfunded status of both of these programs will lead to less than expected results for retirees.
Retirement Is More Costly Than You Think
Most people that I see are running around with the idea that they can retire on 70% of their current income. In reality, this will leave you far short of the retirement dream that you are hoping for. In a recent survey of 5000 retirees the average difference between pre and post-retirement incomes was about 12%. The reason is that while your house may be paid off and your children gone at retirement - individuals tend to substitute other items that eat into the retirement budget such as picking up an expensive hobby like golf, traveling more, spoiling grandchildren but the biggest consumer of post retirement income comes from increased medical expenses and higher healthcare insurance costs.
To be safe you should be planning on 100% of your current income stream for retirement. If you aren't - you could find yourself coming up short and you don't want to find that out once you are already IN retirement.
Investing For Retirement
You cannot INVEST your way to your retirement goal. As the last decade has most likely taught you, hopefully by now , is that the stock market is not a "get wealthy for retirement" scheme. You cannot continue to under save for your retirement hoping the stock market will make up the difference. This is the same trap that pension funds all across this country have fallen into and are now paying the price for.
You must actually save money if you want to retire...period.
The financial markets are there for a reason and should be used - not as a "casino" or "get rich quick scheme" but as a tool to ensure that your SAVINGS have the same purchasing power parity in the future. In other words, your job as an investor, and mine as a portfolio manager, is NOT TO BEAT THE S&P 500 in any given year - your goal is ONLY to outpace inflation. Chasing an arbitrary index that is 100% invested in the equity market requires you to take on far more risk that you most likely want. This is why after the last decade individuals are still below breakeven and have lost a far more valuable asset than money - and that is the TIME that has been lost that is needed to prepare properly for retirement.
Investing for retirement, no matter what age you are, should be done conservatively and cautiously with the goal of inflation adjustment being the sole goal. You work very hard for your money - don't squander it by putting it at risk of loss. However, this doesn't mean that you will NEVER make money in the markets - the goal, however, should be not to lose as much in down markets (our rule at Streettalk Advisors is 80% of the upside and no more than 20% of the downside). Overtime, not beating the market on the upside, but conserving a large amount of the principal on the downside, will actually accrue to an out performance of the overall market and a successful landing at retirement.
Focus on:
- Blue chip dividend yielding stocks over speculative barn burners
- Fixed income over CD's
- Certain annuities can be useful for shoring up income needs at retirement (be very careful - these can be hazardous to your health if used improperly)
- Don't be afraid to hold a LOT of cold hard cash during times of market uncertainty.
Most importantly - turn off the media and don't look at your portfolio more than once a week. All you are doing by watching the markets tick by tick is driving yourself insane and trapping yourself into making emotional decisions on your investments which will, more often than not, turn out to be wrong.
5 Things You Need To Know
- There is no computer trading program that works - if there was Goldman Sachs would own it and they wouldn't share it with you. Anybody who is hocking some latest trading software is making money off you - if it worked they would be rich and wouldn't be selling it to you.
- You Will Be WRONG. No stock or investment goes up forever. More importantly, the higher they go up - the bigger the crash will be. RISK does NOT equal return. RISK = How much you will lose when you are wrong and you will be wrong more often than you think.
- Don't worry about paying off your house. A paid off house is great but if you are going into retirement house rich and cash poor you will be in trouble. You don't pay off your house UNTIL your retirement savings are fully in place and secure.
- In regards to retirement savings - have a large CASH cushion going into retirement. You do not want to be forced to draw OUT of a pool of investments during years where the market is declining. This compounds the losses in the portfolio and destroys principal which cannot be replaced.
- Plan for the worst. You should want a happy and secure retirement - so plan for the worst. If you are banking solely on Social Security and Pension Plans - what would happen to you if they weren't there. Corporate bankruptcies happen all the time no matter how big the company is. Yes, Wal-mart, Exxon and AT&T certainly can go bankrupt - it wasn't that long ago that people thought GM couldn't go bankrupt either. In the event of a bankruptcy, the pension plan goes to the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation which, since they are massively underwater, will most likely contact you with a reduced payout.
Bottom line: Plan for the worst - this way if ANYTHING else happens you are in great shape.
It's All About You & Your Money
As we say everyday on the show - it is all about you and your money. Pay attention to it and understand the difference between what is good for you and what is good for Wall Street. Wall Street wants you to chase the markets, insurance companies want you to buy products and gold companies want you to buy gold - why, because it makes them money - it doesn't mean that you will make money.
There is no one more concerned about YOUR money than you. Investigate, learn, ask questions and get involved. If you don't take an active interest in your money - why should anyone else?
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Fox 26: The Disconnect Between The Market & Economy
In an exlusive interview on Fox 26 with Jose Grinon and Melissa Wilson discussing the disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy. I recently discussed this idea in much greater detail in an article entitled "The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy" wherein I stated:
"So, while the markets have surged to "all-time highs" - for the majority of Americans who have little, or no, vested interest in the financial markets their view is markedly different. While the mainstream analysts and economists keep hoping with each passing year that this will be the year the economy comes roaring back - the reality is that all the stimulus and financial support available from the Fed, and the government, can't put a broken financial transmission system back together again. Eventually, the current disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge. My bet is that such a convergence is not likely to be a pleasant one."
Weak wage growth, elevated levels of unemployment, and rising prices for food and energy continue to chip away at the fabric of the American economy even though the Fed continues to inflate asset prices further. The reality is that we are like inflating the next asset bubble as I discussed in early March of this year:
Don’t misunderstand me. As we wrote last week - it is certainly conceivable that the markets could attain all-time highs. The speculative appetite combined with the Fed’s liquidity is a powerful combination in the short term. However, the increase in speculative risks combined with excess leverage leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction at some point in the future.
The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put "fear" into an overly complacent marketplace. There is currently no shortage of catalysts to pick from whether it is further fiscal policy missteps stemming from the upcoming "Debt Ceiling" debate, a resurgence of the Eurozone crisis, or an unexpected shock from an area yet to be on our radar.
In the long term it will ultimately be the fundamentals that drive the markets. Currently, the deterioration in the growth rate of earnings, and economic strength, are not supportive of the speculative rise in asset prices or leverage. The idea of whether, or not, the Federal Reserve, along with virtually every other central bank in the world, are inflating the next asset bubble is of significant importance to investors who can ill afford to once again lose a large chunk of their net worth.
It is all reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now famous words: "Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau." The clamoring of voices that the bull market is just beginning is telling much the same story. History is repleat with market crashes that occurred just as the mainstream belief made heretics out of anyone who dared to contradict the bullish bias.
Does an asset bubble currently exist? Ask anyone and they will tell you "NO." However, maybe it is exactly that tacit denial which might just be an indication of its existence.
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- • ISM - Misses Expectations
- • ADP Signals Weak Job Report Friday
- ► January (23)
- • Chicago ISM - Has The Recovery Peaked?
- • Home Prices Fall Further
- • PCE Points To Weaker GDP Ahead
- • Q4 GDP - "Prognosis Still Negative"
- • Fed Meeting - Reconciling A Weak Economy
- • Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall
- • IMF Cuts Global Forecast - US Won't Dodge T...
- • Complacency Risk Is High
- • Prices Paid And Coming Earnings Weakness
- • Housing Is Not Affordable
- • Industrial Production Confirming Changes To...
- • Patiently Waiting For The Golden Cross
- • Consumer Sentiment Rises - Still In Recessi...
- • Why QE3 Won't Help "Average Joe"
- • Industrial Production May Be About To Weake...
- • Consumer Spending May Dissapoint
- • NFIB - Small Businesses More Optimistic
- • Markets Throw Off A Buy Signal
- • The Real Employment Situation Report For De...
- • Improvement In Employment - At Least For No...
- • Markets Getting Over Bought / Over Bullish
- • Market Rallies To Resistance - Now What?
- • ISM & Construction Spending - Modest Improv...
- ► December (19)
- ► 2011 (277)
- ► December (22)
- • 2012 Outlook - Anything Other Than The Apoc...
- • Q3 GDP - "Prognosis Negative"
- • The Eurozone Is Saved?
- • Market Rally To Nowhere
- • Housing Starts Up - Patient Still Critical
- • NAHB Housing Market Index
- • A Little Followed Indicator Hints At Recess...
- • Inflation Pressures Rising In The Core
- • Economic Deluge - Economy Shows Some Positi...
- • Is The Gold Run Over?
- • Import Prices Jump - Recession Odds Increas...
- • NFIB - Bounce Off The Bottom
- • No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales
- • A Million Dollars Ain't What It Used To Be
- • STA RIsk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This B...
- • Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
- • What Are Initial Claims Not Telling Us?
- • Is Consumer Spending Really Surging?
- • Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession
- • Market Rallies Into EU Meeting
- • ISM Composite Index Ticks Up
- • The Real Employment Situation Report
- ► November (29)
- • Economic Data - Headlines Bullish
- • Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Ba...
- • Was That The Consumer's Last Gasp?
- • Housing - The Margin Effect
- • Economic "Run Down" - Weakness Emerges
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • Is Market Warning Of The Next Lehman Event?
- • EOCI Index Improves - Is It All Clear?
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting A Peak In Ea...
- • US Debt To GDP Now 98.9% And Rising
- • Inflation - A Continued Problem For Consume...
- • Economy Shows Tenative Signs Of Improvement
- • Debate - Is US Becoming Japan
- • Presidential And Decennial Cycles - What Ab...
- • Consumer Sentiment Driven By Market Rally
- • Net Export Prices Turn Down
- • What "Average Joe" Really Thinks
- • Blood Bath As Italy Faces Crisis
- • Are Oil Prices Confirming ECRI Recession Ca...
- • Oil Price Spike Update
- • No Joy In NFIB Report
- • Market Vs Economic Cycles And Sector Rotati...
- • Employment - The Good, Bad & Ugly
- • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Not Adding Up
- • Productivity Up - Costs Down
- • Fed's Outlook Much Weaker Than Reported
- • Food Stamp Usage Sets New Record
- • Fed Trapped By Inflation
- • Manufacturing Not Showing GDP Strength
- ► October (24)
- • STA Risk Ratio Turns Up
- • Buy Signal Is In - But Move Slowly
- • Recession Still Likely Despite Bump In GDP
- • A Haircut, Boost and Drop
- • New Homes Sales - Glued To The Bottom
- • Consumer Is Key To Next Recession
- • Case-Shiller 20-City Index Flat As HARP Wil...
- • CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
- • Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter...
- • Temporary Bounce In Philly Fed Confirmed By...
- • Inflation Rises Along With Housing Hopes
- • Snipe Hunting In The Housing Market
- • Der Spiegel is Der Wrong
- • Inventories, Sentiment and Sales - Behind T...
- • The Empire Is Tarnished
- • A JOLT To The System
- • NFIB and PCI - More Signs Of Weakness
- • 1929-45 Vs Today - Following The Same Path
- • Unemployment Report Worse Than It Looks
- • Bearish Sentiment Abounds
- • ISM Composite Index - Been Here Before
- • Yield Spread Confirming Recession Call
- • Market Breaks Its Neck
- • ISM Manufacturing Index - Backlog Drawdown ...
- ► September (34)
- • 5 Months Down - Time For A Bounce?
- • Economic Trifecta - But No Winners
- • Economy Upticks & Jobless Claims Fall
- • Gallup - Economic Confidence Slides
- • Can Margin Debt Give Us A Clue On Market Di...
- • Euro Tarp - Why It Will Be A Screaming Fail...
- • Consumer Doldrums
- • Chicago Fed National Activity "Slowing Down...
- • End Of Week Technical Wrap Up
- • The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming ...
- • Leading Indicators Predict Weaker Economy
- • Why The Fed's "Silver Bullet" Won't Kill Th...
- • Fed Buy's Paltry $ 400 Billion - Need A Hug...
- • Market Weak - Waiting On The Fed
- • Housing Still A Drag
- • Consumer Confidence Remains At Lowest Level...
- • Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Creat...
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting Recession
- • CPI Rises - Inflation Hits Home
- • Consumers Tapping Out Savings To Spend
- • PPI - Pushing A Slowdown
- • NFIB Confidence Slides Lower
- • Export Prices Still A Negative For The Econ...
- • The Great American Economic Lie
- • High Yield Spread Signaling Recession
- • The Economy Weakens More
- • Obama's $ 400 Billion For Jobs And Counting
- • Trade Deficit - Points To Possible Uptick I...
- • Another Domino Falls For The Market
- • Corporate Profits Are In Trouble
- • Are Stocks Undervalued?
- • European Markets Down Sharply
- • Jobs - What Jobs?
- • Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
- ► August (38)
- • Market Bounce OR New Bull Market
- • Chicago ISM Confirms Weakness
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses - Again
- • Personal Incomes Still Under Pressure
- • Annotated Bernanke Speech - The Elusive Eco...
- • Corporate Profits - Hinting At Recession
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • The Deficit Spending Trap
- • Will Ben Go For Another Round Of QE?
- • Boomers - Are Going To Be A Real Drag
- • No Job = No New House
- • Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
- • Technical Market Overview
- • EOCI Index Now At Recession Levels
- • Composite Inflation Index Warning Of Slower...
- • 7 Things That Make Me Worried
- • The Difference Between "WHAT" and "WHEN"
- • Empire Fed Index - 3 Strikes You're Out
- • Rosenberg On The Economy
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses
- • Trade Deficit Points To Sub-1% 2nd Qtr GDP
- • 7 Things My Mom Taught Me About Investing
- • Blood In The Streets - Part II
- • Ceridian UCLA Consumer Pulse - Going Flatli...
- • Market Bounce - Was It Stealth QE3?
- • FOMC Meeting Ends - No Change To Stance
- • NFIB Survey Says...Higher Taxes Won't Work
- • Panic Attack! Markets Extremely Oversold
- • Employment Report Less Than Meets The Eye
- • Market Trashed Again! Panic Hits.
- • Recession Almost A Certainty
- • QE 3 Coming - But Won't Save The Economy
- • Yield Curves & The Fed Model
- • ISM Composite Index - Continues Decline
- • Market Trashed - What Now?
- • Personal Income Under Pressure
- • ISM - Clinging On For Dear Life
- • Debt Deal - A Complete Failure
- ► July (38)
- • We Are All Guessing
- • Dismal Economic Numbers
- • 10 Lessons Learned From Poker
- • STA Risk Ratio - Still On Sell Signal
- • GDP - 2nd Quarter Estimate
- • Consumer Un-Confidence
- • Are We Headed For A Second Recession? Upda...
- • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Confirm...
- • Decline In Profits Leads Index
- • EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness
- • Help Wanted - Not So Much
- • Existing Home Sales - A Resumption Of Decli...
- • Housing Starts - Bouncing Along The Bottom
- • You Can't Have A Jobless Recovery
- • NAHB Housing Index - No Signs Of Life
- • Commentary: A Default Would Devastate D.C.-...
- • Tax Reform -The Overlooked Solution
- • Empire Index - Harbinger Of Bad Things To C...
- • Consumers Believe It's Really A Recession
- • Inflation Index Flashes Warning
- • Bernanke Gives US Congress "The Finger"
- • Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
- • Why The Trade Deficit Is Warning Of Weak GD...
- • QE 3 - "To Infinity And Beyond"
- • No Fear - That's Not A Good Thing
- • More Fed Stimulus - As Expected
- • NFIB - No Jobs For You
- • Why Economists Don't Have A Clue About Jobs
- • Raising Taxes Won't Raise Revenue
- • Why The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Seems
- • Why Oil Price Spikes "Feel" Worse
- • The Average Investor Doesn't Stand A Chance
- • How To Just Get By On Food Stamps
- • Jobless Still Jobless- Teens Hired For The ...
- • ISM Composite Index Showing Contraction
- • Outperforming The Market By 30% With No Ris...
- • ISM Report - Little To Be Excited About
- • Greenspan - QE Was A Failure
- ► June (38)
- • Market Failed At Resistance - Now What?
- • Full Employment - Hope vs Reality
- • Existing Home Sales Reflect Balance Sheet R...
- • Myths Of Retirement Planning
- • Implications Of Household Debt Deleveraging
- • LEI Warning Of Economic Stumbling Economy
- • Greece Ripple Effects Could Create US Finan...
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Economy Failing Right On Time
- • New Home Starts - It's The Job Market Stupi...
- • Composite Price Index - Pushing Upper Limit...
- • Empire Composite Index Signals Economic Con...
- • PPI - Ratio Pointing To Economic Weakness
- • NFIB Employment Expectations Dispells 5% Ec...
- • Trade Deficit - A Roadmap To Economic Stren...
- • How Far Might A Bounce Go?
- • What Is Really Driving The Weakness In The ...
- • Obama Says He Has No Fear Of A Double Dip
- • NYSE Margin Debt
- • Beranke Speech - A Prelude To QE 3
- • Don't Get Suckered!
- • QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time
- • Job Report Shocker
- • Where's My Bottom
- • STA Risk Ratio Indicator Update - Still Cor...
- • ISM Composite Index Confirmed Market Top
- • Not The American Dream I Was Told About
- • Never Buy Stocks Again? Seriously?
- • Where Is The Confidence?
- • ISM Manufacturing Report Hits The Brakes
- • A Weaker Dollar Equals A Weaker Economy
- • Market Bounce
- • SF Bay Bridge - "Made In China"
- • Consumer Confidence At Recession Levels
- • The Decline Of The American "Saver"
- • Greece Fire - NY Post
- • The Breaking Point
- • Financial Profits Reduce Economic Prosperit...
- ► May (32)
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Slide In Corporate Profits - Part II
- • Personal Incomes Still Feeding The Gas Tank
- • Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market...
- • Economic Surprises - The Wrong Kind
- • New Orders For Durable Goods - Another Nail...
- • STA Buy/Sell Indicator Flashes Sell Signal
- • New Home Sales Not Inspiring
- • STA Economic Output Index Takes A Plunge
- • Debt To GDP And A Sustainable Level
- • The Virtuous Cycle Of The Economy
- • Economy Shifting Into Slower Gear
- • 7 Impossible Trading Rules To Follow
- • Housing Starts Fall - Again
- • Cyclical Bull Markets In Secular Bear Marke...
- • Empire Manufacturing Index
- • More Inflation For Consumers!
- • Headline Inflation Pushing Up
- • Weakness In GDP Continues (X-M)
- • Small Business Optimism Getting Worse!
- • Import Prices Flashing Warning Signal
- • Home Prices Following The Path To Destructi...
- • The Hyperinflation Index
- • Unemployment Rate Climbs To 9.0%
- • The Link Between Productivity & Jobs
- • Commodities Stumble
- • Jobless Claims Jump
- • ISM Composite Index vs S&P 500
- • ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Have A Lo...
- • Gallup: More Than Half Of Americans Still S...
- • "Let Them Eat IPads"
- • Have We Seen The Peak In This Business Cycl...
- ► April (22)
- • Fallacy Of The Falling Dollar
- • 1.8% GDP Not So Great!
- • Bernanke's Folly - High Oil Prices Are Flee...
- • Consumer Confidence - STILL Not So Confiden...
- • Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recessio...
- • New Home Sales Tick Up
- • STA Risk Ratio Throwing Off Warning Signal
- • The Philly Fed Survery Says....#&^%@!!
- • Americans Receive MORE In Government Handou...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Reaching Danger Zone
- • Housing Starts Not Starting
- • Pitchfork and Torches For The Rich
- • S&P Downgrades US Credit Outlook To Negativ...
- • Why You Can't Invest For The "Long Term"
- • Jobless Claims & PPI - Not Looking Better
- • Who Pays The Taxes!
- • Retail Sales Confirms Consumer Weakness
- • Gallop Poll Confirms NFIB Index - Economy S...
- • Small Business Still Not Optomistic
- • Trade Deficit Narrows - But Not In A Good W...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Climbs
- • High Commodity Prices Not The Result Of The...
- ► December (22)


