suggested blog sites
Empire Manufacturing Index: Do Not Look Inside
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 17, 2013
The June release of the New York Federal Reserve regional manufacturing survey posted a much improved print of 7.84 from a negative May reading of -1.43. However, much like "Pandora's box" what you see on the outside and what is inside are two terribly...Chart Of The Day: Interest Rates Vs. S&P 500
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 17, 2013
The great "bond bull market" is dead.
Interest rates are rising on expectations of stronger economic growth ahead.
The "great rotation" from bonds to stocks is afoot.
These are all statements I have heard being made over the last month as 10-year...The Economy In Pictures
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 14, 2013
I have been writing extensively about the data behind the headline media reports and discussing the importance of the underlying data trends relative to the broader macroeconomic perspectives. However, it is sometimes helpful just to view the various economic...100 Years Of Change (1913-2013)
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 14, 2013
MoneyChoice.Org
June 14, 2013
Interesting infographic showing the changes in economic and societal makeup over the last 100 years.
Consumer Confidence Spurs Retail Sales
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 13, 2013
In yesterday's post "Gallup: Consumer Spending Is Up - Retail Data Is Down" we discussed sentiment of consumers relative to their actions. Today, the advance monthly retail sales report showed a bump of .06% for May which exceeded economist's estimates. ...Fox 26: Digging Into The May Jobs Report
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 12, 2013
I visited with my friend Mike Iscovitz on Fox 26 to discuss the May jobs report. As I discussed in detail in my recent post "Employment: The Macro Trends" job growth is not keeping up with population growth. Furthermore, and most importantly, as...CNBC: My Take On Employment Data
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 12, 2013
This past Friday I visited with Bill Griffith, Maria Bartiromo and Rick Santelli on CNBC to discuss my views on the latest employment report. My take is somewhat basic in regards to the data - on a macro level the jobs that are being created are temporary, low...Gallup: Consumer Spending Is Up - Retail Data Is Down
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 12, 2013
In an interesting report from Gallup Americans' self-reported daily spending rose to an average of $90 in May, the highest since October 2008 and higher than it has been in May since the $114 found in the same month in 2008. Spending is up from $86 in April and on...NFIB: Optimism Improves But Don't Get Too Excited
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 11, 2013
The latest release of the National Federation of Independent Business small business survey showed an improvement in the latest reading to 94.4 up from 92.1 last month. Overall, the readings were positive and this is the second strongest overall reading of the...Is The Eurozone Crisis Set To Flare Up?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 10, 2013
I have written in the past that all is not solved in the Euro-zone. In fact, despite the ongoing jawboning from the ECB that they stand ready to "do anything," in reality they have done little to this point other than just talk. While that has...Employment - The Macro Trends
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 7, 2013
The May jobs report came in better than expected at 175,000 jobs with the labor force ticking up slightly from the lowest levels since 1979. With the markets deeply oversold on a daily basis the report provide the catalyst necessary for traders to return to the...4 Tools Of Corporate Profitability & The Economic Consequences
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 5, 2013
Recently, I wrote an article discussing the "Truth About Wall Street Analysts" and the inherent conflict between Wall Street and individual investors. There is also another group of individuals who are also just as conflicted - corporate executives. Today,...Following The Fed To 50% Flops
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 5, 2013
HUSSMAN FUNDS
June 5, 2013
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
One of the most strongly held beliefs of investors here is the notion that it is inappropriate to “Fight the Fed” – reflecting the view that Federal Reserve easing is sufficient to keep stocks not only...10 Reasons Why You Need Financial Advice
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 5, 2013
ABOVE THE MARKET
June 5, 2013
By: Robert P. Seawright
Yesterday, while I was otherwise engaged, Josh Brown threw some fuel on the active v. passive fire:
“Active investors, in the meantime, really can’t say anything. There isn’t a single...The Truth About Wall Street Analysts & Why You Need Independence
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 4, 2013
Turn on financial television or pick up a financially related magazine or newspaper and you will hear or read about what some stock analyst from some major Wall Street brokerage has to say about the markets or a particular company. For the average person,...3 Wall Street Myths That Won't Die
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 4, 2013
MARKETWATCH
June 3, 2013
By: Stephen Lonsdalen
With the most recent market rally from the March 2009 Dow Jones Industrial Average low of 6,547 to the recent eclipse of 15,000, Investors are beginning to bring back all the old Wall Street myths that...The Most Important Economic Number
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 3, 2013
Over this past weekend Russ Koesterich, CFA, who is the iShares Global Chief Investment Strategist, penned an article entitled "The Most Important (And Widely Ignored) Economic Number" wherein he states:
"While economic numbers like GDP or the monthly non-farm...3 Reasons For Higher Market Highs
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 30, 2013
Howard Marks once wrote:
“Resisting – and thereby achieving success as a contrarian – isn’t easy. Things combine to make it difficult; including natural herd tendencies and the pain imposed by being out of step, since momentum invariably makes pro-cyclical actions...Consumer Confidence - Was It Really That Good?
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 29, 2013
It is interesting to watch mainstream analysts, and journalists, grab for headlines to support the bullish rhetoric without actually doing some underlying research. As we discussed in "5 Questions Every Market Bull Should Answer" the drive by the markets higher...Evaluating 3 Bullish Arguments
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 28, 2013
These are indeed interesting times that we live in. As the markets elevate higher on the back of the global central bank interventions it is important to keep in context the historical tendencies of the markets over time. It is not uncommon at major market...The Fed's Real Worry - A Pick Up In Deflation
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 24, 2013
In several of my recent missives I have made several references to the wave of deflationary pressures that are currently encircling the globe.
In "Japan: A Few Thoughts On The Crash" I stated:
"The unintended consequence of such actions, as we are witnessing...Japan - A Few Thoughts On The "Crash"
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 23, 2013
CNBC: Global Markets Roiled by Nikkei's 7.3% Slide "Financial markets around the world were roiled Thursday after Japanese stocks suffered their biggest slide since the country was hit by a devastating tsunami more than two years ago. Several reasons...Chart Of The Day: Existing Home Sales
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 22, 2013
Existing home sales for April came in at 4.97 million from an upwardly revised March reading of 4.94 million (originally 4.92 million.) However, the question remains that with rising home prices, and tightening supply, when do potential buyers get priced out of...Bernanke's Link To "Mother Nature"
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 21, 2013
Yesterday, after I updated my economic and employment composites and discussed that they were pointing to weakening economic trends, a two mile wide tornado ripped through Oklahoma causing a massive amount of destruction. The video below is a 10x time-lapse video...Five Lessons from Apple's Fall
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 20, 2013
KIPLINGER.COM
May 20, 2013
By: Kathy Kristof
(Click Here For Original Article)
Shares have recovered modestly from their autumn swoon. But future gains won't come easy.
The stock market may be the world's most ruthless headmaster, teaching investors costly...Economic And Employment Composites Indicate Further Weakness
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 20, 2013
"The economy is amazing right now - employment is recovering, innovation is going and housing is reviving. What's not to love?" This was a statement I heard in the media to justify the recent rise in the stock market. In this past weekend's newsletter...The Great "American" Divide
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 17, 2013
I have often spoken of the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. While asset prices are inflated by continued interventions of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, boosting Wall Street profits and widening the wealth gap between the top 20%...Why Bonds Aren't Dead & The Dollar Will Get Weaker
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 16, 2013
There have been quite a few bold predictions, since the beginning of the year, that the dollar was set to soar and that the great "bond bull market" was dead. The primary thesis behind these views was that the economy was set to strengthen and inflation would...Chart Of The Day: S&P 500 Now At Extremes
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 15, 2013
Recently I have been discussing the direct connection between the Federal Reserve's Q.E. program and the market as well as putting you, my dear reader, to the task of answering the inherent questions regarding the sustainability of the current rally.
Today's chart of...Fed May Quietly Taper QE Before September
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 15, 2013
BLOOMBERG
May 15, 2013
By: Vivien Lou Chen
May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Bernanke, other Fed officials will probably drop hints about tapering QE before June meeting, then start reducing purchases behind scenes before formal announcement is made in Sept., said Lance...5 Questions That Every Market Bull Should Answer
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 14, 2013
There have been a litany of articles written recently discussing how the stock market is set for a continued bull rally. The are some primary points that are common threads among each of these articles which are that interest rates are low, corporate...Clues To Watch For The End Of QE "Infinity"
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 13, 2013
So, apparently, according to Jon Hilsenrath, "QE to Infinity" is actually "finite" after all. With Ben Bernanke set to "exit stage left" in 2014 the question of who replaces him at the helm of the massive USS "Federal Reserve" will be important as to the future...Should Companies "Twitter" Their Earnings
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 10, 2013
It is an interesting question: Should companies "tweet" their earnings and new related items?
As discussed my position is that high frequency trading, program trading, etc. has created an environment that is not only unfair to the average retail investor but...Fox 26: The Disconnect Between The Market & Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 10, 2013
In an exlusive interview on Fox 26 with Jose Grinan and Melissa Wilson discussing the disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy. I recently discussed this idea in much greater detail in an article entitled "The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs...."Risk On" Rally - Don't Forget The Risk Part
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 9, 2013
I have been bombarded as of late by media requests for the "meaning" behind the markets hitting "all-time" nominal highs. The reality is that it means very little. I was discussing this same issue at the beginning of April 2013 just as the markets hit "all...The "Labor Hoarding" Effect
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 9, 2013
Just recently the April employment report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which showed a surprise jump in employment for the month of April of 165,000 jobs. The general consensus for the report was 153,000 jobs so the "better than expected"...Lacy Hunt: Cyclical Hurdles For A Highly Over-Leveraged Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 7, 2013
Part VI is the last of the series of reports from the 10th annual Strategic Investment Conference, presented by Altegis Investments and John Mauldin. Dr. Lacy Hunt, of Hoisington Investment Management, presents his views of the impact on economies when they become...David Rosenberg - The Potemkin Rally
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 3, 2013
In Part V of the series of reports from the 10th annual Strategic Investment Conference, presented by Altegis Investments and John Mauldin, David Rosenberg presents a rather shocking shift from his primary thesis over the last 3 years.
You can read the previous...Mohamed El-Erian: Putting It All Together
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 3, 2013
Mohamed El-Erian – Putting It All Together
In Part IV of the series of reports from the 10th annual Strategic Investment Conference, presented by Altegis Investments and John Mauldin, Mohamed El-Erian ties together the views of the previous presenters. You can read...A. Gary Shilling - Six Realities In An Age Of Deleveraging
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 2, 2013
In Part III of my series of reports from the 10th annual Strategic Investment Conference, presented Altegris Investments and John Mauldin, the question of how to invest during a deleveraging cycle is addressed by A. Gary Shilling, Ph.D. Dr. Shilling is the...Jeff Gundlach - Why Own Bonds At All
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 2, 2013
In the continuing series of reports from the 10th annual Strategic Investment Conference, presented Altegris Investments and John Mauldin, the question of why you should own bonds was answered by Jeff Gundlach who is the CEO and CIO of Double Line.
(Click here for the...Niall Ferguson – The Great Degeneration
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 2, 2013
I am at the 10th annual Strategic Investment Conference in California which is put on annually by Altegris Investments and John Mauldin. Niall Ferguson is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University, a Senior Fellow of the Hoover...Economic Data Continues To Disappoint
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 1, 2013
Each year I make a pilgrimage to the Strategic Investment Conference in California to listen to, and report back to you, on the views from investment and economic luminaries such as Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, Kyle Bass, Jeff Gundlach, Niall Ferguson, Nouriel Roubini,..."Lady Luck" & Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 1, 2013
ABOVE THE MARKET
May 1, 2013
By: Robert Seawright
The self-serving bias is our tendency to see the good stuff that happens as our doing (“we had a great week of practice, worked really hard and executed on Sunday”) while...March Spending Driven By Surge In Services
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 29, 2013
The latest personal income and expenditure report for March was of particularly interesting reading. However, as opposed to the mainstream headlines that immediately reported that despite higher payroll taxes consumers were still spending, and therefore a sign of...It's A Bit Early To Declare A Winner In The Economic Debate
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 25, 2013
Recently, Henry Blodget wrote that "The Economic Argument Is Over - And Paul Krugman Won." The premise of the article is that the ongoing debate between economic schools of thought, since the financial crisis began, over what policies were necessary to get the...Central Banks Load Up On Equities
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 25, 2013
BLOOMBERG
April 25, 2013
By: Sarah Jones
[Streettalklive Note: From a purely logical standpoint such actions by Central Banks is unlikely to end well. While Central Bank buying is elevating prices in the short term through an effective...How To Be A "Real" Man
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 25, 2013
ABC NEWS
April 25, 2013
By: Matthew Dowd
Last week, in the midst of the search for the remaining Boston bombing suspect, I tweeted out a note saying I wished folks would come up with a different term than "manhunt" because the behavior and actions of the Tsarnaev...Durable Goods: Another Straw For The Camel
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 24, 2013
In the ongoing series of economic reports released as of late which have missed consensus estimates - the durable goods report was the latest straw to be piled onto the "camel's back" showing softness in the economy. Of course, this really isn't surprising given...Life In America: 1983 vs 2013
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 24, 2013
TOP DEGREES ONLINE
April 24, 2013
Much has changed in the last 30 years from tastes in music and movies to incomes and the type of employment. The infographic below shows the changes that we have experienced both as individuals and as an economy. ...Economic Slowdown More Than A "Soft Patch"
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 24, 2013
HOUSTON (MarketWatch) — For months, economists and the media have proclaimed that we are in full-recovery mode. While the markets were at record highs, unemployment had not improved, economic growth was stagnant and most corporate earnings had little to do with an...Has Real Estate Sales Activity Peaked?
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 23, 2013
Over the last month I have been discussing the deterioration in the economic data (see here, here and here). However, the one bright spot, economically speaking, has been real estate. However, that "bright spot" has come with many caveats since much of the...STA Economic & Employment Composites Paint Weak Picture
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 22, 2013
With the recent release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) I can now complete my economic and employment composites for March. The problem, as I see it, with most economic data is that it is generally too specific to a particular region, or...Earnings Flash Warning Sign
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 22, 2013
CNBC
April 22, 2013
By: Jee Yeon Park
Just two weeks into the first-quarter earnings season, a greater-than-usual number of companies have reported disappointing revenue results and tepid guidance, leading strategists to expect a more volatile time for...BEA Will Change The GDP Calculation To Boost Economy By 3% In July
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 22, 2013
FINANCIAL TIMES
April 22, 2013
By: Robin Harding
StreettalkLive Note: The article represents the real problem with economic analysis and government reporting. Whether it is CPI, Employment or GDP the constant revisions, changes and recalculations to...Bubble To Bust To Bubble
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 19, 2013
DEALB%K
April 19, 2013
By: Jesse Eisinger, Propublica
Are we moving from the crash to the bubble, dispensing with that pesky economic recovery thing altogether?
The Federal Reserve is well into its third round of "quantitative easing," in which it buys...Random Observations & Rising Risks
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 18, 2013
I have spent to last few days reviewing, writing, and discussing the economy, markets and investing. While my opinions have been unfavorable amongst the "stock bulls" over the last several months many of the issues I have been discussing, the "risks", are now...Fox Business: Market & Investing Debate
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 18, 2013
I recently visited with Melissa Francis on Fox Business News, along with two other panelists, to discuss the current market and investing strategies. My position currently is that holding cash in the short term is the best hedge against market volatility and...Investment Hell
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 18, 2013
ABOVE THE MARKET
April 18, 2013
By: Robert Seawright
According to the great Swiss theologian Karl Barth, hell is having your own way and being stuck with it. Investment hell is similar, except that there typically is a price at which escape is possible, if...Krugman's Data-Picking Downplays U.S. Debt
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 18, 2013
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
April 18, 2013
By: Ben Steil
Paul Krugman recently dismissed concerns about America's large international debt.
"America's debtor position," he writes, "isn't actually that deep, because of capital gains."
When Krugman talks...Goldman Sachs: A Consumption Setback
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 17, 2013
I recently posted two pieces discussing that the peak of economic growth was likely behind us. (See here and here) In particular both pieces addressed personal consumption expenditures and their importance to the overall strength and direction of the...More Evidence That The Economic Peak Is In
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 16, 2013
Recently I posted "Economy In Pictures: Have We Seen The Peak?" which was simply a series of charts including GDP, wages, spending, production and employment from which you were allowed to draw your own conclusions. The point of this exercise was to allow your...A Warning About "That Guy" Who Is Beating The Market
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 16, 2013
THE NEW YORK TIMES / BUCKS BLOG
April 16, 2013
By: Carl Richards
I'm sure I'm not alone in running into "that guy."
You know, the guy who always seems to make the best investment decisions. I seem to run into him (and it's almost always a "him") everywhere: the...What The Bull Giveth, The Bear Taketh Away
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 16, 2013
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES/DSHORT.COM
April 16, 2013
By Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. - Santayana
The question of whether to commit new funds to stocks here is nuanced and complex, not...Gold Crash: What It's Not Telling Us
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 15, 2013
The recent plunge in gold prices below $1500 an ounce has suddenly awoken, well, just about everyone. The "gold bugs" are yelling that it is a conspiracy theory by the Fed while the stock market bulls say it is a sign that the Fed has achieved its goal of...Luck, Skill, & Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 15, 2013
MORNINGSTAR ADVISOR
April 15, 2013
By: Editorial Staff
1 What got you interested in looking at the roles that luck and skill play in outcomes?
Luck and skill have been relevant in almost everything I have done. I have been involved in sports as an athlete, a...Investing & Taxes: Pay Now Or Later
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 15, 2013
USA TODAY
April 15, 2013
By: Jeff Reeves
When you think about retirement planning, it's important to remember two powerful factors that matter as much as the dollar amount you save: time and taxes.
Compound interest over the decades can turn even a modest amount...Video - The Potential Impact Of The Obama Budget On Average Americans
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 12, 2013
Spent a lot of time with my friends, Melissa Wilson and Mike Iscovitz, on local Fox26 News discussing Obama's proposed budget. We discussed a wide range of topics relating to Obama's proposal from the real impact of "Chained CPI" on retirees as well as those...Fox Business: Spring Cleaning Your Portfolio
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 12, 2013
As the markets hit all-time highs it was a pleasure to visit with Liz Claman at Fox Business News to discuss what investors should be doing with their portfolio's now. As I discussed recently in my post "Recent Consolidation Allows Push Higher", and with Liz in...Understanding The AMT
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 12, 2013
With the tax deadline upon us, I wanted to highlight a tax that is affecting more American taxpayers than ever before. The Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), originally meant to impact only the wealthiest of individuals, has become a burden for a growing number of...The Link Between A Gold Standard & Economic Growth
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 12, 2013
FORBES
April 12, 2013
By: Nathan Lewis
For some reason, it is conventional wisdom today that the years 1870-1914, the era of the Most Perfect Monetary System Ever Created, was a time of chronic recession and disaster.
But how could that be? The United States was...4 Mistakes Investors Continually Make
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 12, 2013
WSJ MARKETWATCH
April 12, 2013
By: Paul B. Farrell
Earning season is here. Are you still optimistic about 2013? In the fifth year of an aging bull? With Fed QE stalling? Cheap-money near ending? GDP falling to 2%? Commodities dropping? Political gridlock till...S&P 500: Recent Consolidation Allows Push Higher - Risks Remain
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 12, 2013
Over the past several weeks the markets have been trapped within a very tight consolidation process vacillating between positive and negative returns each day for 17 days in a row - a feat not seen since 1981. The first chart below shows that action over the last...6 Huge Problems With Obama's Budget
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 11, 2013
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
April 11, 2013
By: IBD Editorial Staff
Fiscal Policy: Shorn of its accounting gimmicks, the president's budget isn't a "balanced" plan to get the debt crisis under control. It's a monument to fiscal irresponsibility.
With much fanfare...FOMC Minutes Signal End To QE
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 11, 2013
TIM DUY'S FED WATCH
April 10, 2013
By: Tim Duy
I usually enjoy the day FOMC minutes are released. It is one of the few releases those of us on the West Coast can read at the same time as everyone else without having to get up in what seems like the middle of the...All Risk And Little Reward
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 9, 2013
THE FAT PITCH
April 10, 2013
The Fat Pitch is about finding the circumstances where your expected return (upside) is a high multiple to your expected risk (downside). This blog attempts to combine a variety of measures to portray the expected risk/return at any...Where's All That Cash
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 9, 2013
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT.COM
April 10, 2013
By: Bill Hardison
Have you noticed the tendency lately for the market to respond well to bad news? The meme becomes, this market is so strong that nothing can stop it! Eventually something does, but until then we...NFIB: No Sign Of Economic Improvement
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 9, 2013
While the mainstream analysts and economists keep hoping for a signs of a strengthening economic story to support rising stock valuations and the Fed's interventionist policies - the data keeps dashing those hopes with cold reality. Last week I discussed...12 Cognitive Biases That Screw Up Your Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 9, 2013
MINYANVILLE
April 9, 2013
By: Todd Harrison
I recently came across a terrific article that addressed 12 cognitive biases that prevent human beings from behaving rationally. As perception is reality in the financial markets, I thought it might be useful to address...Chained CPI - A Tax Increase On Middle Class
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 9, 2013
THE FISCAL TIMES
April 9, 2013
By: Eric Panin
While much of the controversy over President Obama's proposal for tweaking the consumer price index has centered on how it would cut long term Social Security benefits for seniors, the COLA change could raise taxes and...What Do Interest Rates Tell Us About The Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 8, 2013
Last week I discussed the disconnect between the markets and the economy stating that:
"Since Jan 1st of 2009, through the end of March, the stock market has risen by an astounding 67.8%. However, if we measure from the March 9, 2009 lows, the percentage gain...The Market Is Beginning To Top
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 8, 2013
COMSTOCK PARTNERS
April 8, 2013
By: Comstock Partners
The market appears to be running into some technical problems at the same time that the fundamentals are showing sign of deterioration. Recent U.S. economic releases have tended to be...We Should Know How This Ends
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 8, 2013
HUSSMAN FUNDS
April 8, 2013
By: John Hussman, Ph.D.
Overvalued, overbought, overbullish. When in history have we seen the Shiller P/E (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings) above 23, the S&P 500 over 60% above its 4-year...Economy In Pictures: Have We Seen The Peak?
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 5, 2013
The general mantra from mainstream analysts and economists since the first of the year is that the "economy is set to finally turn the corner." The premise of the assumption is that the Fed's continued monetary actions, and now specific targeted goals of...Fox26 - March Unemployment Report
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 5, 2013
The March jobs report was anything but pretty as only 88,000 jobs were added for the month while the labor force participation rate plunged to the lowest levels since the early 1980's.
However, while mainstream economists and analysts point to continued job growth,...Fisker Automotive - Obama's Next Solyndra
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 5, 2013
ZERO HEDGE
April 5, 2013
By: Tyler Durden
Pop quiz:
Q. What is the fiscal multiplier on $529 million in government stimulus?
A. If you are Fisker Automotive, zero.
While the terminal fate of the federally-subdizied car company was no secret to anyone, there...Paul Krugman Whiffs On His Cali-Comback Column
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 5, 2013
WASHINGTON EXAMINER
April 4, 2013
By: Conn Carroll
Politically, California is everything liberals want America to become. Democrats control every statewide elected office, they have two-thirds majorities in both legislative chambers, and the state Republican party...The Fallacy Of The Fed Model
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 4, 2013
On April Fool's Day Martin Hutchinson released an article entitle "This Little-Known Indicator Says Stocks Should Double." stating:
With the markets breaking all-time highs last week, it begs the question of just how high they can go. At 1,569 points the bears...QE Really Is Forever
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 4, 2013
THE TELEGRAPH
April 4, 2013
By: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Columbia Professor Michael Woodford, the world's most closely followed monetary theorist, says it is time to come clean and state openly that bond purchases are forever, and the sooner people understand this...The Missing Ingredient Of The US Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 4, 2013
iShares Blog
April 4, 2013
By: Russ Koesterich, CFA
The housing and labor markets are healing, but one ingredient necessary for the recovery remains missing: organic income growth.
As my readers know, I was closely watching last Friday’s February personal income...Chart Of The Day: ISM Composite Index
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 3, 2013
With the recent release of the March ISM Purchasing Manager surveys I can now compile the ISM Composite Index. In March the manufacturing survey declined from 54.2 in February to 51.3 in March while the non-manufacturing survey fell from 56.0 to 54.4. Both...Sub-Prime Auto Loans Or How To Use A Shotgun As A Downpayment
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 3, 2013
ZERO HEDGE
April 3, 2013
By: Tyler Durden
Thanks to the Fed's ZIRP, the investing world is on a constant reach for yield; and due to the fact that the last bubble of investor largesse (ignoring leverage and reality) was not 'punished' but in fact 'bailed-out',...Fools Never Learn
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 3, 2013
MISH'S GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
April 3, 2013
By: Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Proving that fools never learn, the Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit.
President Obama’s economic advisers and outside experts say the...Why You Can't Beat The Index
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 2, 2013
Yesterday's post on the disconnect between the market and the economy spurred several emails that I actually addressed in this past weekend's newsletter.
I have spent much of last week doing interviews on what the push to all-time highs means. In reality, for...S&P 500: Breakout Or Breakdown?
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 2, 2013
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT.COM
April 2, 2013
By: Chris Kimble
Investors around the world are sitting on the edges of their seats, wondering if the S&P 500 will breakout or is making a giant 13-year triple top. Where should one look for answers or clues to...Chasing Yield - Yields Bad Results
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 2, 2013
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
April 2, 2013
By: Joe Calhoun
You've probably read about financial repression in which governments or their agents interfere in the market in an effort to reduce debt. The most obvious recent example is the Fed and...The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 1, 2013
Last week I was swamped with interviews, both radio and television, to discuss the meaning of the markets hitting new all-time highs. The general consensus of the analysts and economists that I was pitted against was that the rise in capital markets, given weak...David Stockman: The Great Deformation
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 1, 2013
PEAK PROSPERITY via ZERO HEDGE
April 1, 2013
By: Adam Taggart
"Then, when the Fed's fire hoses started spraying an elephant soup of liquidity injections in every direction and its balance sheet grew by $1.3 trillion in just thirteen weeks compared to $850...5 Dumb Money Moves To Avoid
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 1, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
April 1, 2013
By: Brett Arends
You know the smartest things to do with your money. But what are the worst moves? What should you avoid?
Weirdly enough, they are things that a surprising number of people are still doing—even...History Points To A Brutal Rebalance - 1920's Style
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 29, 2013
REAL CLEAR MARKETS
March 29, 2013
By: Jeffrey Snider
My colleague Joe Calhoun introduced the idea many months ago that everything has happened before, and if you are careful and studious with historical precedence you can find anecdotes for nearly every situation...I've Been Wrong About Everything
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 29, 2013
ZERO HEDGE
March 29, 2013
By; Charles Gave of GaveKal
A Recantation
Over the years a number of economists and political scientists have seen the error of their ways and come clean with a reasoned recantation. The mid-19th century British thinker John Stuart Mill...The 2012 Compendium Of Tax Filing Tips
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 28, 2013
Fear. Dread. Anxiety. Yes, it is that time of year again as the single most hated day of the year approaches - April 15th. This year, as I do most years, I compiled a list of tax tips to help you maximize your tax filing process and, hopefully,...Low Cash Levels, High Margin Debt: Different This Time?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 28, 2013
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT.COM
March 28, 2013
By: Chris Kimble or Kimble Charting Solutions
Earlier this month I shared that cash levels/negative net worth in brokerage accounts were nearing the lowest levels in history (see post here). The last three...Bernanke & The Spin Doctors
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 28, 2013
NEW YORK POST
March 27, 2013
By: John Crudele
Ben Bernanke and the Ph.D. economists he loves so much need to get out into the real world a little more.
The economic doctors at the Federal Reserve are causing their boss to make some very wrong assumptions, and one...Economic Data Shows Underlying Weakness
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 27, 2013
As the markets have rallied over the last couple of months one of the primary "hopes" by mainstream analysts, economists, and even the Fed, has been the hope that the economy will begin to show real signs of life. While the continued injections of monetary...Is Market Timing Dead?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 27, 2013
WSJ MARKETWATCH
March 26, 2013
By: Mark Hulbert
Be on your guard in coming weeks for declarations that market timing is dead.
That would be a warning sign that a market top may be imminent.
That's because market timing goes in and out of popularity according to...The Great Recession Followed By Grand Illusion
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 27, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
March 26, 2013
By: Mort Zuckerman
The Great Recession is an apt name for America's current stagnation, but the present phase might also be called the Grand Illusion—because the happy talk and statistics that go with it, especially regarding...Fox26 - What Should Investors Be Doing Right Now
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 26, 2013
Visited with my good friend Mike Iscovitz at Fox26 yesterday to discuss investing in the markets, what is happening with Cyprus and what investors should be looking at in the months ahead. It is always interesting that comments such as "you should be cautious...Elizabeth Warren's Acquired Economic Stupidity
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 26, 2013
REAL CLEAR MARKETSMarch 26, 2013
By: Robert Tracinski
The problem with a reductio ad absurdum argument is that sometimes your opponent accepts the absurdity and just runs with it.
When smokers were suing cigarette companies and the FDA was...Fund Manager's Are Alarmingly Bullish
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 26, 2013
THE SHORT SIDE OF LONG
March 21, 2013
By: Tiho Brkan
Last time I updated the ever popular Merrill Lynch Fund Managers Survey was in late January. A common occurrence was the high levels of risk taking, a non-desire for market protection, high...Chart Of The Day: Reality Vs Belief
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 25, 2013
In this past weekend's missive I showed, in rather excruciating detail in multiple charts, that complacency in the financial markets is at extremely elevated levels. I equated this "complacency" to the danger of driving down an isolated freeway very late at...BlackRock Or Fed Ex - Who Is Right?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 25, 2013
ALHAMBRA PARTNERS
March 21, 2013
By: Jeffrey P. Snider
So, which is it, Larry Fink (Blackrock), “I’m hyperbullish on the US economy” or Federal Express?
I don’t think they can both be right.
Mr. Fink, for his part, is conforming to the sell side script....Mortgage's Future Is Just A Rehash Of The Past
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 25, 2013
THE NEW YORK TIMES
March 25, 2013
By: Gretchen Morgenson
IN a perfect world, policy makers, legislators and concerned Americans would have spent the last few years conducting an honest dialogue about two important issues: how to resolve Fannie Mae...Fed's Economic Projections - Myth Vs Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 22, 2013
Each quarter the Fed releases their assessment of the economy and their forward looking projections for three years into the future. (See Fed Downgrades Economic Outlook for the December analysis)
While Bernanke puts on a great “dog and pony” show for the media –...You Are Not A Good Investor
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 22, 2013
MEBANE FABER RESEARCH
March 22, 2013
By: Mebane Faber
You probably think you are good at picking stocks (and investing in general). I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you are not. In fact, you are terrible at investing. Now, there may be a few of you that...Huge Fed Balance Sheet Has Historical Precedent
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 22, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
March 22, 2013
By: Michael S. Derby
The massive and growing size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is the source of enduring angst for many central bank watchers, but a note from Morgan Stanley observes that on a relative basis,...The Fed Has Already Imposed A "Cyprus Tax" On U.S. Savers
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 21, 2013
Over the course of the last few days I have been swamped with media calls to discuss the "deposit tax" on Cyprus account holders and the potential impact on global financial markets and, more importantly, the possibility of such an event occurring domestically. ...Bernanke's Testimony - Then & Now
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 21, 2013
THE ALEPH BLOG
March 21, 2013
By: David Merkel
Comments
Notable: they mention that fiscal policy is less accommodative. Also, some new language leaves room for policy gradualism.
Not so notable: they shade up their views on GDP and employment, and shade...Global Economies Face An Age Of Deflation
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 21, 2013
BLOOMBERG
March 21, 2013
By: A. Gary Shilling
In recent years, monetary and fiscal stimulus across the world have led to the assumption that serious inflation, if not hyperinflation, is on its way. I believe chronic deflation is more likely.
The expectation of...Bearish Outlook: Greenspan & Kunis - Bad Omens
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 20, 2013
BARRON'S
March 20, 2013
By: Randall Forsythe
He's b-a-a-a-ck. The Maestro himself, one-third of The Committee to Save the World, Sir Alan Greenspan. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average coming off a winning streak only slightly less impressive...Bullish Outlook: 10 Reasons Bull Market Is Set To Run
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 20, 2013
WSJ MARKETWATCH
March 30. 2013
By: Jeff Reeves
There's an old saying about Wall Street climbing a wall of worry. And right now there are plenty of worries — from sequestration to Cyprus to a China slowdown.
The stock market's race to all-time highs has impressed...Faith In Policymakers May Be "Serious Error"
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 20, 2013
REUTERS
March 20, 2013
By: Laurence Fletcher
Investors betting that actions by policymakers will prop up financial markets indefinitely could be making a "serious error", says Brevan Howard, one of the world's biggest and most respected hedge fund firms.
The...Fox Business News - The Cyprus Effect
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 19, 2013
Visited with Gerri Willis yesterday for a panel discussion about the impact of Cyprus on the markets and, in particular, could such a "deposit tax" occur in the U.S.
Of the topics discussed on of the more interesting debate points was on the issue of "earnings yield"...Investment, Speculation, Valuation & Tinker Bell
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 19, 2013
HUSSMAN FUNDS
March 19, 2013
By: John Hussman, Ph.D.
Stocks remain in a mature – but not obviously complete – bull market, with the S&P 500 a stone's throw away from its 2007 record high of 1565. In the midst of it all, investors face a confusing mix...Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 19, 2013
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES/DOUG SHORT
March 19, 2013
By: Doug Short
Earlier today the anonymous author of Wall Street Rant sent me a link to a commentary that asks the intriguing question Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven?
The approach used in...COTD: Risk Ratio Pushing Extremes
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 18, 2013
Over the past couple of months I have been discussing the rising risk in the markets as asset prices have been propelled higher by continued Federal Reserve monetary actions even as corporate earnings have weakened. In particular, in the post titled "There...Markets Didn't Freak Out Over Cyprus. Are We In The Clear?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 18, 2013
WP WONKBLOG
March 18, 2013
By: Neil Irwin
First the good news: Financial markets have been relatively stable Monday, not really panicking over international authorities' decision to force losses on those with deposits in Cyprus's banks.
Borrowing costs for Spain...Deficit Deniers Should Do The Math
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 18, 2013
BARRON'S
March 18, 2013
By: Gene Epstein
With the proportion of working-age Americans in the overall population shrinking, and the number of elderly rising, the nation is headed for big trouble unless steps are taken soon.
There are nearly 80 million reasons for...S&P Hits 1560 Target As Risks Rise
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 15, 2013
At the end of February I wrote an article entitled "Get Ready For A Run To All-Time Highs" wherein I stated:
"At this time we are still confident in our price target of 1560 on the S&P 500 this year. However, it is possible that the markets could rise to the...Sorry Krugman, We Still Need Say's Law
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 15, 2013
FORBES
March 15, 2013
By: Louis Woodhill
"Supply creates its own demand." Say what? No, "Say's Law".
Say's Law must be important, because economists have been arguing about it for 210 years. It was proposed by French businessman (and economist) Jean-Baptiste Say...Fox Business News/Melissa Francis - Is Now The Time To Buy?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 15, 2013
Spent a few minutes with Melissa Francis on Fox Business News in a panel discussion with Jonathan Hoenig and Spencer Patton discussing the much debated topic of what should investors be doing now with markets at all time highs.
My view point is...Digging Behind The February Retail Sales Report
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 14, 2013
Sometimes you just have to scratch your head and go "hmm." That was my first reaction to the most recent release of the retail sales numbers for February which came in stronger than expected in both the headline print (+1.1%, on expectations of a +0.5%...If There Is No Inflation - Why Are Prices Up So Much?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 14, 2013
TIME - BUSINESS & MONEY
March 13, 2013
By: Michael Sivy
Last week, I ran out of ink for my printer and ordered some more online. My computer automatically pulled up the previous order, and I was shocked to see that the price of the ink...There's Nothing "Limited" About Ryan's Balanced Budget
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 14, 2013
REAL CLEAR MARKETS
March 13, 2013
By: John Tamny
In a Republican Party that seemingly no longer believes or understands its limited government rhetoric, Rep. Paul Ryan has long been an outlier. Much like his late mentor in Jack Kemp, Ryan has always given the...NFIB: "No Sign Of A Surge In Confidence"
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 13, 2013
The latest release of the National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Survey was a bit of dichotomy of interpretation. Econoday stated the following:
Optimism is up among small business owners based on a solid 1.9 point gain in the small...Howard Marks: Bond Rally Only In 5th Inning
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 13, 2013
BARRON'S
March 13, 2013
By: Jonathan R. Lang
Howard Marks has made a killing on distressed debt. So, what does he think of the bond bubble? It's in only the "fifth inning."
Howard Marks is a study in contrasts. On the one hand, he has the undeniable mien of an...Ryan: The GOP Plan To Balance The Budget By 2023
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 13, 2013
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
March 12, 2013
By: Paul Ryan
America's national debt is over $16 trillion. Yet Washington can't figure out how to cut $85 billion—or just 2% of the federal budget—without resorting to arbitrary, across-the-board cuts. Clearly, the budget...The Real February Employment Report - In Pictures
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 12, 2013
There has been much debate over the latest employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for February which showed headline employment gains of a whopping 236,000, of course, less discussed was the downward revision to January from 157,000 to just...Main Street Hasn't Abandoned Wall Street
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 11, 2013
REAL CLEAR MARKETS
March 11, 2013
By: Robert Samuelson
We now know the promise and peril of paper wealth. In the past 15 years, the stock market's convulsions ought to have rattled even hardy investors. Twice - after the popping of the "tech bubble" in 2000 and...The Global Great Disconnect
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 11, 2013
PROJECT SYNDICATE
March 11, 2013
By: Kemal Dervis
Since the second half of 2012, financial markets have recovered strongly worldwide. Indeed, in the United States, the Dow Jones industrial average reached an all-time high in early March, having...What The Markets And Taylor Swift Have In Common
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 11, 2013
The other day I was driving my daughter to school and a Taylor Swift song came on the radio. She immediately pleaded with me from the back seat to turn it up. As she was bopping her head back and forth and singing the tune – the lyrics got me to thinking...Watch The Coming Keynesian Self-Destruction
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 10, 2013
FORBES
March 10, 2013
By: Nathan Lewis
I have been enjoying a wonderful short book calledFiat Money Inflation in France, by Andrew Dickson White. It refers to experiments with printing press finance that began in 1789. The book was published in...Barber Misses Market's New Buzz
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 10, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
March 9, 2013
BY: Jonathan Cheng
As the stock market roared higher in the spring of 2000, Bill's Barber Shop was the place in town for a $10 haircut and a hot stock tip.
More than a decade later, Bill's shop is still standing. But it is $15...Is There A Rental Supply Glut?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 7, 2013
MARK HANSON (MHANSON.COM)
March 7, 2013
By: Mark Hanson
Summary…”If you buy it, they may not rent it…at the price you thought or need”
A side of the “flood of investors sucking up all the supply” story that nobody is talking about…weakening rental demand....401(k)'s Are A Disaster
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 7, 2013
USA TODAY
March 7, 2013
By: Duncan Black
Over the past few decades, employees fortunate enough to have employer-based retirement benefits have been shifted from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans. We are now seeing the results of...Dow Back On Top. History Provides Caution
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 7, 2013
WSJ MARKETWATCH
March 7, 2013
By: Charles Passy & Jonnelle Marte
Dow Back On Top - Are You?
Charles Passy
With the Dow Jones Industrial Average having surpassed its October 2007 peak on Tuesday, can consumers breathe a sigh of relief?
The...You Can't Consume Your Way To Prosperity
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 7, 2013
PBS NEWSHOUR
March 7, 2013
By: John Papola
A Note from Paul Solman: We first encountered John Papola via "Fear the Boom and Bust," his stunning Keynes vs. Hayek rap, made in collaboration with old friend Russ Roberts. The rap lyrics are extremely even-handed...Chart Of The Day: Retiree's No Better Off Than In 1999
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 6, 2013
ICI recently released their retirement plan data through Q3 of 2012. The chart of the day shows the real (inflation adjusted) total retirement market assets per working age citizen in the U.S. This includes IRA's, defined contribution plans, private defined...Dow At Highs - Buy, Sell or Hold?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 6, 2013
In a recent interview on Fox Business News I discuss the new historical highs on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the risks that are building in the markets. I also discuss where investors should position themselves on any correction in the market.
The...This Time Is Different - The 2013 Edition
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 6, 2013
AZIZONOMICS BLOG
March 6, 2013
By: John Aziz
A small note on the frankly hilarious news that the Dow Jones Industrial Average smashed through to all-time-highs.
First of all, while stock prices are soaring household income and household confidence are...NINJA Loans Are Back - Along With A Housing Bubble
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 6, 2013
ZERO HEDGE
March 6, 2013
By: Tyler Durden
First we got GM subprime interest-free car loans, then we got subprime ABS securitizations, then we got soaring student loan defaults and delinquencies, then we got the opportunity to sell and..."Lost Decade" For 401(k)'s Not Over
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 6, 2013
WSJ - MARKETWATCH
March 5, 2013
By: Matthew Heimer
With the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record high today, some commentators have been declaring an end to the stock market's so-called lost decade, arguing that investors who had the patience and...The Dow - Not Really All Time Highs
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 5, 2013
The media is going into near hysteria over the Dow rising above its 2007 closing high. While it is true that prices in the Dow, a price-weighted index of only 30 stocks, have risen above it previous peak it is important to keep some perspective by remembering a...There Is No Asset Bubble?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 5, 2013
As I was researching, and writing, this past weekend's weekly newsletter entitled "The Bernanke Factor" what really struck me was the universal belief by the majority of analysts, economists and commentators, that there is currently "no evidence" of an asset...Savings, Investment & Economic Activity
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 5, 2013
HUSSMAN FUNDS
March 5, 2013
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
[This section extracted from the orginal - for the full post click here]
I've often noted that recessions aren't simply a time when total demand falls short. They are usually a time where the mix of...In Bernanke We Trust
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 5, 2013
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
March 5, 2013
By: Joe Calhoun
BERNANKE ON INTEREST RATES AND CREATING BUBBLES:
"It's the cost of these policies and one that we take very seriously. We look at these possible mis-pricings and we ask ourselves are they in fact...Have Investors Finally Cracked The Stock-Picking Code?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 4, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
March 4, 2013
By: Jason Zweig - The Intelligent Investor
Believe it or not, there could be a new holy grail for investors.
"Great ideas come along maybe once every 20 years or so," David Booth, chairman of Dimensional Fund Advisors in Austin,...Retirement Investing vs. Performance Delusion
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 4, 2013
FORBES
March 1, 2013
By: Mitch Tuchman
Barry Ritholtz, recently wrote in The Washington Post about investors who believe that they are infallible in all markets: His refreshingly impolite word for these folks is "liars."
They don't seem to be doing any damage...Personal Incomes & The Decline Of The American Saver
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 1, 2013
The latest report on personal incomes and outlays showed the expected collapse in personal incomes post the pre-fiscal cliff surge. However, the reversion was more than expected. Today's charts of the day present the effects of both the reversion in...Wage Recession Worse Than Jobs Drought
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 1, 2013
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
March 1, 2013
By: Jed Graham
As bad as the current job recovery has been — and it's by far the weakest since World War II — the recovery in wages has been far worse.
Five years after the recession began in December 2007, total wages in...Storm Brewing - Worse Than 2008
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 1, 2013
BLOOMBERG
March 1, 2013
By: Katherine Burton
Stan Druckenmiller, one of the best-performing hedge fund managers of the past three decades, has a warning for the youth of America: Don't let your grandparents steal your money.Druckenmiller, 59, said...Get Ready For The Run To All-Time Highs
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 28, 2013
The market suffered a sharp correction that began last week that shocked the markets by falling a whopping 2.81%. Of course, since the market has suffered that big of a drop since late last year it was understandable that investors panicked a bit. However,...The Fed's Long Record Of Failure
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 28, 2013
WASHINGTON POST
February 27, 2013
By: George Will
A display case in the lobby of the Federal Reserve Bank here might express humility. The case holds a 99.9 percent pure gold bar weighing 401.75 troy ounces. Minted in 1952, when the price of gold was $35 an...50 Not So Good Facts About U.S. Healthcare
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 27, 2013
THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE BLOG
February 27, 2013
By: Michael Snyder
The U.S. health care system is a giant money making scam that is designed to drain as much money as possible out of all of us before we die. In the United States today, the...The Real Story Behind The Bounce In Core Capital Goods
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 27, 2013
The Durable Goods report released for January was disappointing on the surface with new factory orders dropping by 5.2% for the month. However, there are a couple of things to remember about the durable goods report: 1) it is an advance estimate of the...Ben Resuscitates QE, Downplays Risk & Cost
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 27, 2013
BLOOMBERG
February 26, 2013
By: Caroline Baum
Last week, the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing was about to undergo some quantitative adjustment. At least that was the take-away from the minutes of the Jan. 29-30 meeting, suggesting that Fed...Rational Temperance
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 27, 2013
PIMCO
February 27, 2013
By: William H. Gross
But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?– Alan Greenspan 1996
PIMCO's dear friend and former counselor Alan Greenspan coined this now famous phrase in the...Housing, Confidence & Richmond Fed
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 26, 2013
Over the last few days I have been discussing a variety of different data points as they have been released concerning the current state of economic growth. What is most concerning is the disconnect between the mainstream economist's, and analyst's, optimistic...TBTF Banks Are Only Profitable Due To Taxpayer Subsidies
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 26, 2013
BLOOMBERG
February 20, 2013
Why Should Taxpayers Give Big Banks $83 Billion a Year?On television, in interviews and in meetings with investors, executives of the biggest U.S. banks -- notably JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon -- make the case...Sequester The Fed
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 26, 2013
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
February 26, 2013
By: Joe Calhoun
"If Congress allows this meat-cleaver approach to take place, it will jeopardize our military readiness. It will eviscerate job-creating investments in education and energy and medical research. It...Economic Recovery And The EOCI Index
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 25, 2013
Recently I wrote an post entitled "In Search Of The Economic Recovery" wherein I discussed the concern that I had with the consensus views that the domestic economy had turned the corner as was set for substantially stronger growth in the coming quarters ahead. ...Why The Euro Crisis Isn't Over
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 25, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
February 22, 2013
By: Brian M. Carney
The economist who dared to predict Europe's mess, and was fired for it, says there is much more pain to come.
Seventeen years ago, Bernard Connolly foretold the misery that awaited the European Union....Capitalism Is So Broken It Can't Be Fixed?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 25, 2013
WSJ MARKETWATCH
February 23, 2013
By: Paul B. Farrell
Clayton Christensen, one of the world's brilliant minds on business innovation, believes capitalism is broken. Needs a fix.
But look closely at his three innovations for saving capitalism. He's really talking...LEI - Is There A Disconnect?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 22, 2013
The data behind the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) index has been drastically revised twice in as many months which has led questions about the relative strength of the economy during that period. The latest revised data shows a marked...Market And Investing Wisdoms
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 22, 2013
I recently penned an article entitle "Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investment Rules" which covered some of the very basic primers of money management and being a successful investor over the long term. However, Bob Farrell is only one of the many truly great...5 Reasons Not To Worry About The Sequester
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 22, 2013
THE FISCAL TIMES
February 22, 2013
By: Josh Boak and Eric Pianin
With the automatic spending cuts kicking in next week, it's tough to separate fact from bluster. Both the Obama administration and congressional Republicans chose this week to go with...Is It Time To Buy Gold? The Update
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 21, 2013
Gold has historically been considered a hedge for inflation, dollar devaluation and economic stress. Since the end of the last recession gold has been an asset class of choice by those expecting hyperinflation due to the ongoing activities by Central Banks...10 Reasons High Oil Prices Are A Problem
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 21, 2013
OILPRICE.COM
February 21, 2013
By: Gail Tverberg
A person might think from looking at news reports that our oil problems are gone, but oil prices are still high.
Figure 1. US crude oil prices (based on average prices paid by US refiners for all...Siren's Song Of The Unfinished Half Cycle
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 20, 2013
HUSSMAN FUNDS
February 20, 2013
By: John Hussman, Ph.D.
“First you will come to the Sirens who enchant all who come near them. If any one unwarily draws in too close and hears the singing of the Sirens, his wife and children will never welcome him home again,...Goldilocks Or The Big Bad Bear?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 20, 2013
ALHAMBRA PARTNERS
February 20, 2013
By: Joe Calhoun
Once upon a time in a commentary long, long ago I said that we'd know the US economy was on the right track when we saw three conditions simultaneously: rising stocks, a rising dollar and a...Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rules
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 19, 2013
[Extracted from this past week's X-Factor Report - register for free weekly email delivery]
As the markets once again approach historic highs - the overly exuberant tone, extreme complacency and weakness in the economic data, bring to mind Bob Farrell's 10 investment...The Coolidge Lesson On Taxes And Spending
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 19, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
February 19, 2013
By: Amity Shlaes
Only Reagan could fix this.
That's the intuitive reaction to the surge of spending and budgetary challenges in Washington today. It's hard to think of another Republican with the fortitude to push back...With Stock Prices Soaring, Investors Fear Another Crash
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 19, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
February 19. 2013
By: Brett Arends
Dow 14000? Again?
Like Lucy with her football, forever enticing Charlie Brown to one more kick, Wall Street is waving at Main Street yet again and shouting, "Have a little faith—try me one more...Global Recession Tugs At U.S. Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 15, 2013
This recent release of the manufacturing and industrial production data added further support to our previous commentary regarding the search for the much touted economic recovery. Unfortunately, it has yet to manifest itself. The latest data showed that...Raise Minimum Wage - Get Minimum Jobs
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 15, 2013
THE FISCAL TIMES
February 15, 2013
By: Edward Morrissey
Like those of all modern presidents, Barack Obama's State of the Union speech was filled with agenda-list items, long-held hobby-horse issues of his party, and inflated claims of the success of his own...The Great Disconnect
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 15, 2013
WALL STREET JOURNAL
February 15, 2013
By: Paul Vigna
Forget about the Great Rotation. Focus on the Great Disconnect.
The sell-side boys have been salivating at the thought of finally getting their hands on the fund flows from bond investors who've...Chart Of The Day: The S&P 500 Wedge Tightens
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 14, 2013
Last night on "Streettalk Live" we discussed the "rising wedge" of the stock market and the potential outcomes ahead. The chart of the day is the S&P 500 and rising wedge pattern that has been building since the 2009 lows.
While the upward sloping bullish...Take Money Out Of The Market While It's Easy
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 14, 2013
BARRON'S
February 14, 2013
By: Alan Ableson
The boneyard's revenge. It's no coincidence, we believe, that the stock market began to sulk virtually simultaneously with the discovery of the remains of the villainous (if Shakespeare is to be believed) Richard III,...10 Big Market Worries
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 14, 2013
MSN MONEY
February 14, 2013
By: Anthony Mirhaydari
Can The Rally Carry On?
Over the past few weeks, I've been one of the few voices calling for caution and even cynicism in the face of the stock market's push to multiyear highs. It's patently obvious what's...In Search Of The Economic Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 13, 2013
The ongoing message from the mainstream media, analysts and most economists is that the economy has turned the corner and we are set for substantially stronger growth in the coming year. While that sounds great on the surface the economic data has yet to hint at...Sex, Lies And Money (Video)
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 12, 2013
HOUSTON (FOX 26)
February 12, 2013
By Mary Jo Rapini
Interview: Mary Jo Rapini/Lance Roberts
Marriage research has listed finances as one of the top three reasons couples get into trouble. Couples who begin to struggle with money issues are having problems at a...Why You Should Own Bonds
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 12, 2013
Recently my friend Cullen Roche posed an interesting question: "Why invest in bonds? Given that equities have historically outperformed bonds, I wonder why anyone in their 20's or 30's would hold any bonds whatsoever? Or am I missing something?"
That...10 Immutable Laws Of Money
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 12, 2013
Money – we all want it, but few of us are willing to sacrifice to get it. Those that have it generally don't understand it, and those that don't have it come up with excuses why they can't get it. If this sounds confusing – it is.
For all that we have accomplished in...The Great Mania
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 12, 2013
BARRON'S
February 12, 2013
By: Martin Conrad
The full story about housing and the economy has been ignored too long. Like all manias, it was a long time building.
The boom of the 1950s and 1960s, featuring rising incomes and wealth, occurred in a well-balanced...Klarman - The Oracle Of Boston
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 12, 2013
THE ECONOMIST
February 12, 2013
HEDGE-FUND bosses rarely double as cult authors. But an out-of-print book by Seth Klarman, the boss of the Baupost Group, sells for as much as $2,499 on Amazon. A scanned version of "Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing...5 Reasons NOT To Buy [Physical] Gold
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 11, 2013
BARRON'S
February 7. 2013
By: Mark Hulbert
Humphrey Neill, the father of contrarian analysis, famously wrote that "when everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
That's a sobering thought when it comes to gold, since the belief in gold's investment...Beware The Big Errors of "Big Data"
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 11, 2013
WIRED.COM
February 11, 2013
By: Nasim Taleb
We're more fooled by noise than ever before, and it's because of a nasty phenomenon called "big data." With big data, researchers have brought cherry-picking to an industrial level.
Modernity provides too many...Insiders Are Aggressively Bearish
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 7, 2013
WSJ MARKETWATCH
February 8, 2013
By: Mark Hulbert
This is worrisome because corporate insiders — officers, directors and the largest shareholders — presumably know more about their companies' prospects than the rest of us do. If they were confident...GMO - Investing In A Low Growth World
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 7, 2013
GMO
February 7, 2013
By: Jeremy Grantham
The ever prescient Jeremy Grantham discusses how to invest in a a low growth world.
"This quarter I will review any new data that has come out on the topic of likely lower GDP growth. Then I will consider any...Chart Of The Day: Productivity Not Pointing Towards Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 7, 2013
I penned yesterday that:
This data hardly suggests that the economy is ready to turn on its heels and begin a race higher toward the expectations of 3.5% economic growth by the end of 2013. The boosts to the economic data that we have seen as of late have been...No Warning Signs Anywhere (Except Here, Here, and Here)
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 7, 2013
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL BLOG
February 7, 2013
By: Paul Vigna
Look, we get it. The Dow’s going for a record, and the hot-stocks will probably get it there no matter what happens in Rome or Madrid or Washington, D.C. But it’s at times like these, when just about...100 Startling Facts About The Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 7, 2013
THE MOTLEY FOOL
February 7, 2013
By: Morgan Housel
In no particular order...
1. As of January 2013, there are 16 people left in the world who were born in the 1800s, according to the Gerontology Research Group. With dividends reinvested, U.S....Economic Indicators Not Reflecting Exuberant Expectations
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 6, 2013
There has been a plethora of articles of late discussing that the slowdown in Q4 GDP was just an anomaly caused by Hurricane Sandy and that economic growth is showing definite signs of turning up. This conclusion is supported by the surging stock market that has...Subprime Is Back
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 6, 2013
SURLY TRADER
February 6, 2013
By: Surly Trader
In 2005 and 2006, CDO's were being pushed like crack. I remember asking many of the pushers why I would leverage into credit at historically tight spread levels. Their stock answer: "Because you can get a AAA rating...So God Made A Banker
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 6, 2013
WSJ MARKETWATCH
February 6, 2013
By: Brett Arends
To be read in the voice of Paul Harvey.
And on the eighth day God looked down on his planned paradise and said, "I need someone who can flip this for a quick buck."
So God made a...The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 5, 2013
[This article is extracted from this week's X-Factor Report subscribe for free automatic delivery]
There have been several articles as of late discussing that the next great secular bull market has arrived. Historically, secular bear markets have averaged...Rosenberg: 16 Reasons I'm Not Buying The Employment Report
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 5, 2013
GLUSKIN-SHEFF
February 5, 2013
By: David Rosenberg
[This is a great follow up to our recent posting on the problems with seasonal adjustments which obfuscates the real status of employment.]
I went through the January data one last time with a...David Stockman: Housing In "Echo" Boom
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 5, 2013
YAHOO! FINANCE
Febrarury 5, 2013
By: Lauren Lyster
Many have named a U.S. housing recovery as a bright spot in a so-called broader domestic economic recovery.
And data seems to support this analysis, despite a slowdown in sales momentum at the end of the...Fox26 - Stock Market Rally And Buying Tops
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 4, 2013
Spent a few minutes with my friend Mick Iscovitz on Fox26 discussing the recent stock market rally and a recent article on the return of the American "Wealth" boom. I discussed this very thing in our most recent missive, which I mention in this interview,...Seasonal Adjustments Are B.S. - I Can Handle The Truth On Employment
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 4, 2013
The recent release of the January employment figures sent the media and blogosphere abuzz with a wide variety of arguments revolving around seasonal adjustments, birth/death adjustments, household versus survey data and much more. The arguments supporting, and...Will All That Cash Move On Cue?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 4, 2013
YAHOO! FINANCE
January 31, 2013
By: Michael Santoli
It's surprisingly easy to pledge a trillion dollars toward a favored cause. The money, of course, doesn't always cooperate by hustling along the promised path.
There are essentially two pools of about $1...Forget The Rotation: Here's The Source Of The Rally
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 4, 2013
CNBC
Februrary 4, 2013
By: John Carney
Some great commentary on the stock market's rally comes from John Hussman:
The newest iteration of the bullish case is the idea of a "great rotation" from bonds and cash to stocks, as if the outstanding quantity...Chart Of The Day: Incomes & The Cliff Effect
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 31, 2013
This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis released December's data on personal income and expenditures. This is an important data set since personal consumption expenditures (PCE) makes up more than 70% GDP. For the month of December the total...Help Wanted Index Pointing To Employment Slowdown?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 31, 2013
The Conference Board publishes a monthly "help wanted" index which tracks the number of Total Online Help Wanted Ads and the Number of New Ads. The data for this series currently goes back to 2005 after revisions to the index were made. (The original...Was The Election Bought With Taxpayer Dollars?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 31, 2013
When I originally reported on the Q3 GDP report last year I made the following observation:
There was an anomaly though in the government spending component of the 3Q GDP. Of the .67% contribution to the 2.67% annualized economic growth rate - the...Gross: Credit Supernova
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 31, 2013
PIMCO
January 31, 2013
By: Bill Gross
This is the way the world ends...Not with a bang but a whimper.T.S. Eliot
They say that time is money.* What they don't say is that money may be running out of time.
There may be a natural evolution to our fractionally...Bill King: Lack Of Federal Spending Did Not Cause Q4 GDP Plunge
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 31, 2013
THE KING REPORT
January 31, 2013
By: Bill King
The omniscient stock market somehow did not foresee that Q4 GDP would contract by 0.14%.
The .14% decline in Q4 GDP is the result of the surge in Q3 GDP (3.09%), which was due to politics – forcing money into the...GDP - Digging Into The "Unexpected" Decline
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 30, 2013
This morning the media was shocked as the 1st estimate of Q4 GDP dropped to a negative .01% growth rate. This, of course, was "unexpected" by the consensus who had predicted an increase of 1.0%. The good news is that this number will be revised up...The Removal Of "Event Risk"
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 30, 2013
ZERO HEDGE
January 29, 2013
By: Mark J. Grant, Author of Out Of The Box
The removal of "event risk" is the bottom line which defines the markets currently and which is why there is such a large disparity between economic fundamentals and the markets' collective...The Point Of Low Return
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 30, 2013
THE ECONOMIST
January 28, 2013
By: Buttonwood
THIS week's column looks at an exercise in projecting long-term returns by Standard Life, the insurance group. As the final paragraph tries to make clear, the returns from a diversified portfolio are likely...Market/Economy - A Few Observations
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 29, 2013
Over the last couple of days we have been engaged in an overhaul of our website in order to bring an array of new features and options over the next few months. As a consequence I have not been able to write as much as I would have liked, however, it gave me an...Something Not Quite Right
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 29, 2013
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
January 28, 2013
By: Joe Calhoun
Back in November I wrote a weekly commentary that I called Looking For Silver Linings. The market had been taking a beating in the post election period and I wasn’t feeling particularly good about...Capitulation Everywhere
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 29, 2013
HUSSMAN FUNDS
January 28, 2012
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
“Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable will power to keep from following the crowd.” - Benjamin Graham
“Human beings desperately want to belong, but, they also desperately...X-Factor Report 1/28/13 - Will The Market Ever Correct
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 28, 2013
We are currently migrating to a new "backend" for the website which has provided, as expected, more than just a few glitches along the way. I do appreciate your patience but the effort will be worth it.
In this regard we have some ambitious projects...Is The Consumer Really Deleveraging?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 25, 2013
This morning my friend Cullen Roche at PragCap (a daily must read site as I have stated before) posted an excellent piece by Richard Koo discussing the "balance sheet recession." Cullen's accompanying points are critical to understanding where we are in the...Ray Dalio: Cash Will Move Into "Stuff"
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 25, 2013
MARKET FOLLY
January 24, 2013
Streettalklive Note: My belief is that the media has taken Dalio's comments out of context. This recent Davos interview is startly different that his presentation at the recent DealBook conference just a month ago. See Notes...Kass: A Deeper Dive Unearths The Ugly
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 25, 2013
THESTREET.COM/REAL MONEY
January 25, 2013
By: Doug Kass
Let's take a deeper dive into the profit and sales progress, or lack thereof, in the three months that just ended.
Fourth-quarter 2012 EPS have slightly beaten consensus expectations, but most of the beat...LEI - Revisions Show Slower Growth
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 24, 2013
The Conference Board released the LEI index with a full set of backward revisions which showed that LEI has been growing slower than estimated since end of the last financial crisis.
There have been plenty of seasonal distortions, as well as from Hurricane Sandy,...The Visible Hand Of The Fed
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 24, 2013
There has been an burst of exuberance as of late as the market, after four arduous years, got back to its pre-crisis levels. Much has been attributed to the recent burst of optimism in the financial markets from:
1) Better than expected earnings - not counting the...Money Can't Buy Growth
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 24, 2013
CAIXIN ONLINE
January 23, 2012
By: Andy Xie
China and the United States are running the greatest experiment in monetary stimulus in modern economic history, and the evidence shows it is not working
Since Alan Greenspan became the Fed chairman in 1987, there has...Highest Margin Leverage Since 1929
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 24, 2013
STOCK TRADERS ALMANAC
January 24, 2012
By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Our old pal Alan Newman’s January 21 issue of Crosscurrents, entitled “Record Leverage, Record Insanity,” is packed with the usual juicy data and is as salient and succinct as ever. With the market...Chart Of The Day: Economic Policy Uncertainty
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 23, 2013
In recent weeks there has been an overwhelming surge of bullishness based on the idea that with the "fiscal cliff" issue now resolved, and the "debt ceiling" being pushed off well into the future, that the "uncertainty" that has been constraining business investment...Investors Most Optimistic On Stocks In 3 1/2 Years
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 23, 2013
BLOOMBERG
January 23, 2013
By: Rich Millier & Simon Kennedy
Streettalklive Note: Take heed of this article in the context of a contrarian investor. "Investor's are most optimistic at market peaks and most pessimistic at market lows."
International investors...No Time To Chase Old Bulls
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 23, 2013
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
January 23, 2013
By: Joe Calhoun
Lance Armstrong confessed to Oprah Winfrey last week what most rational observers had concluded many years ago – he took performance enhancing drugs during his 7 Tour de France wins. His excuse – as...Chart Of The Day: Richmond Fed Survey
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 22, 2013
The latest release of the Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey showed little to excited about. The current survey tacks onto the New York and Philadelphia Fed surveys showing the boost of activity, as we originally expected, from Hurricane Sandy is...The Real Housing Recovery Story
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 22, 2013
Imagine that your financial advisor called you up one day and said:
"Great news...your investment portfolio gained 1% in January which is an annualized return of 12%. However, we have to subtract .05% from that return because historically January's return has only...5 Risks Facing The Global Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 22, 2013
PROJECT SYNDICATE
January 22, 2013
By: Nouriel Roubini
NEW YORK – The global economy this year will exhibit some similarities with the conditions that prevailed in 2012. No surprise there: we face another year in which global growth will average about 3%, but...US Economy: The Coming Boom
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 22, 2013
THE ECONOMIST
January 21, 2013
By: Ryan Avent, Free Exchange
Streettalklive Note: I don't agree with much of the premise layed out herein because it assumes a return to organic economic growth versus the current stimulative driven excesses. However, we should...Pray The Bond Bubble Doesn't Pop
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 21, 2013
Extracted From The January 19th X-Factor Report
There is no doubt that we are in the process of potentially creating one of the largest asset bubbles in history. While many financial analysts, asset managers and the overly optimistic media will rapidly disagree...Hoisington Q4-2012 Review & Outlook
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 21, 2013
Hoisington Investment Management
January 21, 2013
By: Lacy Hunt, Ph.D.
Quarterly Review and Outlook, Fourth Quarter 2012
Tax Consequences: From Gain to Drain
The American Taxpayer Relief Act has lifted the immediate uncertainty of the fiscal cliff. Nevertheless,...Charts Of The Day: The Economic Recovery Story
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 18, 2013
NOTICE: Stay tuned on Monday for the release of an all new Housing Index. The story of the housing recovery has gained a lot of attention as of late. This new housing index brings the entire housing process, from permits to sales, into one clearly defined...Does This Look Like A Recovery?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 18, 2013
SOVEREIGN MAN BLOG
January 17, 2013
By: Simon Black
A few years ago back when I used to watch an occasional bit of television, I would always have an internal debate with myself: which was more funny– Comedy Central, or CNBC?
It was always a toss-up. One channel...Market Rally Based On Dubious Assumptions
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 18, 2013
COMSTOCK PARTNERS
January 18, 2013
Despite the problems facing the U.S. economy, the dysfunction in Washington and slowing global growth, stocks continue to rise on the basis of what we view as false assumptions. These assumptions are as follows:
1) Since almost...Bullish Optimism Beginning To Reach Extremes
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 17, 2013
Since the end of last year the bullish optimism for 2013 has risen to an almost fevered pitch. Concerns of any further disruption from the Eurozone have faded into the mist. With the "fiscal cliff" issue resolved, and little concern that the "debt ceiling" will not...Is The Consumer Back? Not So Fast.
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 17, 2013
ISHARES BLOG
January 16, 2013
By: Russ Koesterich
Some market watchers are interpreting Tuesday’s better-than-expected US retail sales report as a sign that the US consumer is starting to come back.
But a look behind the December numbers shows that the much...401k Withdrawals Ramp Up As Consumers Scratch For Cash
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 17, 2013
THE WASHINGTON POST
January 17, 2012
By: Michael A. Fletcher
A large and growing share of American workers are tapping their retirement savings accounts for non-retirement needs, raising broad questions about the effectiveness of one of the most important savings...INFOGRAPHIC: Why You Fail At Trading
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 17, 2013
MARTINKRONICLE.COM
January 17, 2012
There are many reasons why the majority of "Do-It-Yourself" investors fail at managing the investments over time. While a lot of it is due to emotionally driven investment mistakes there is also a lack of understanding about...Getting Started With A Budget
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 16, 2013
For most American families the dirtiest 4-letter word in the household is "BUDGET." Nothing brings more fear, panic and shear emotion than discussing a budget with a spouse particularly when one feels that they are under attack for potentially bad behavior.
However,...Housing, CPI And Why I Only Have A Nickel Left
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 16, 2013
In the daily download of economic data points two in particular jumped out at me - the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index and CPI. While both reports were a positive for the economy in the short term - it was the broader aspect which sparked my curiosity.
Home...Can We Spend Our Way To Prosperity?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 16, 2013
FORBES
January 16, 2013
By: John Goodman
Why is the recovery from the Great Recession so slow?
Mounting evidence suggests there are two reasons: (1) We are discouraging employers from hiring and (2) we are discouraging the unemployed from seeking work.
Public...3 Risks To Stock Market Rally
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 16, 2013
IShares Blog
January 16, 2013
By: Russ Koesterich, CFA
The US stock market rally that kicked off the New Year continued last week, and after only two weeks, US stocks are up around 3% for the year. European stocks have posted similar gains and equities in Japan have...Economic Data - Mixed Bag Of Reports
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 15, 2013
If you were looking for some clarity on the direction of the economy then today's releases of economic reports wasn't it.
The Good
The report on retail sales from the Commerce Department showed that consumer spending was moderately strong in December. This is good...Overbought, Overbullish and Overvalued Markets
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 15, 2013
HUSSMAN FUNDS
January 15, 2013
By: John Hussman
“It's important to emphasize that standard bear market declines have historically produced losses averaging about 30% - generally not just 20% (15% declines don't even qualify). I don't expect the next one to be a...The 12 Cognitive Biases That Prevent Rationality
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 15, 2013
PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST
January 15, 2013
By: Cullen Roche
I like this article that’s been floating around on cognitive biases. As I liked to say, it’s in being wrong that we can learn to be right. Understanding your own failings through introspection is one of the best...What Are The Odds The Market Will End The Year Higher?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 14, 2013
In the never ending quest to find reasons "why" the market will rise in any given year - investors routinely grab at a whole variety of indicators that seem to have some correlation to the future outcome of the market. Hemlines, hair styles, skyscrapers, lipstick,...Bailouts Used To Cover Up The Truth
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 14, 2013
WASHINGTON'S BLOG
January 13, 2012
The Government Lied When It Said It Only Bailed Out Healthy Banks … 12 of the 13 Big Banks Were Going Bust
We noted in 2011 that the Geithner, Bernanke and Paulson lied about the health of the big banks in pitching bailouts...Gun Rhetoric vs. Gun Facts
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 14, 2013
FACTCHECK.ORG
January 14, 2013
Summary
The mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., has reignited a national debate on gun control. As elected leaders begin the dialogue, some facts are clear — there has been a massive increase in gun sales. Some things are not so clear —...Signs Of A Fed Driven Rally
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 11, 2013
For the last four years the Federal Reserve has been actively engaged in supporting the stock market by suppressing interest rates to historically low levels, and injecting liquidity into the financial system, through a variety of different programs. The most notable,...Disasterous Consequences Of Not Raising Debt Ceiling
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 11, 2013
Comstock Partners
January 11, 2013
As we face another brutal fight over the federal debt ceiling at a time when the economy still remains fragile, the stock market is oddly complacent. Even if the debt ceiling crisis is resolved, the result would be some combination...Philly Fed Survey - 2012 Revisions Show Much Weaker Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 10, 2013
Here is the problem with all economic analysis - data revisions. Each month economists, analysts and the media work off reported numbers to make assumptions about the economy. However, the problem is that most of the assumptions made generally wind up being wrong...Obama's Default Drama - No Way To Run A Country
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 10, 2013
BLOOMBERG
January 10, 2013
By: Caroline Baum
The United States of America isn’t going to default on its debt, even if Congress doesn’t increase the statutory borrowing authority in the next couple of months. Everyone in Washington knows, or should know, this. Any...Doug Kass: 15 Surprises For 2013
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 10, 2013
THE STREET.COM / REAL MONEY
January 9, 2013
By: Doug Kass
[Note: This is an excerpt from the original article]
What Is the Consensus for 2013?
As we enter 2013, investors and strategists are again grouped in a narrow consensus on economic growth (+2% real GDP),...Why You Are Powerless Against The Government
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 10, 2013
Have you ever felt powerless? That no matter what you do it just won't make ANY difference. You cast your vote for people to represent your best wishes but are repeatedly let down. What can you possibly do?
This is a great video from Larken Rose that clarifies the...Consumer Credit - What Deleveraging?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 9, 2013
The release of the Federal Reserve's report on consumer credit was very telling. One of the continued themes that the economy was on its way to a real recovery was that the consumer was well into deleveraging the household balance sheet. This is important because one...Howard Marks: Time For Aggressiveness Is Over
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 9, 2013
ZERO HEDGE
January 9, 2013
By: Tyler Durden
Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks begins his latest missive with a few hard truths. Anyone who has read his memos of the last 23 years will see he returns often to a few topics. This is due to the frequency with which themes...Exclusive Interview With Felix Zulauf
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 9, 2013
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES/DOUG SHORT
January 8, 2013
By: Joseph Dedona
We recently sat down with world-renowned money manager Felix Zulauf to get his view on global markets. Felix discusses the European debt crisis, the rebound in Chinese equities, the recent Japanese...NFIB - Higher Taxes Not Included
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 8, 2013
The release of the National Federation Of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Survey for December was much like the report we discussed in November. In short - there were very few positives to be found.
According to the NFIB survey optimism among small...An Argument For The Debt Ceiling
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 8, 2013
As we rapidly approach the great "debt ceiling debate," of which we are told that we should "rise above," there has been a rising chorus of arguments for ways to get around the debt ceiling, such as the platinum coin idea, as well as utilizing the 14th Amendment. ...3 Key Charts Before Launch Of Earnings Season
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 8, 2013
ZERO HEDGE
January 8, 2013
By: Tyler Durden
A total of 22 companies, 4% of the S&P 500 market cap, have reported 4Q12 results. Of these, 64% have topped revenue estimates and 68% topped earnings estimates (considerably lower than average).
Aggregate earnings...Top 10 Reasons To Be Bullish In 2013
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 8, 2013
BELKIN REPORT
January 1, 2013
By: Michael Belkin
Michael Belkin publishes a widely read institutional research report on the markets. It is always a fascinating read. Michael is, to say the least, somewhat skeptical of the bullish sentiment that is currently...Rise Above - Two Outcomes To Debt Ceiling Debate
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 7, 2013
"RISE ABOVE: THE DEBT THREAT" is the banner on CNBC. Really? Do we really need another 8 weeks of intrigue, countdowns and the proliferations of discussions over another Congressional event? Before we get into the two possible outcomes of the debt ceiling debate let...Bailouts Continue: Student Loans Forgiven
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 7, 2013
ZERO HEDGE
January 7, 2013
By: Tyler Durden
2012 is the year the student loan bubble finally popped. While on one hand the relentlessly rising total Federal student debt crossed $956 billion as of September 30, and was growing at a pace that will have put it over...Secrets And Lies About Bailout
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 7, 2013
ROLLING STONE
January 7, 2013
By: Matt Taibbi
It has been four long winters since the federal government, in the hulking, shaven-skulled, Alien Nation-esque form of then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, committed $700 billion in taxpayer money to rescue Wall Street...Stock Market Win Streak, Can It Continue?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 7, 2013
NEW YORK TIMES
January 5, 2013
By: Jeff Sommer
ON May 30, 1982, Cal Ripken Jr. played a solid game in the infield for the Baltimore Orioles. He did it again the next game and the game after that and the next game, too. Ripken didn’t miss a game for 16 years.
At...Heads Or Tails - The 2013 Coin Toss
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 4, 2013
In money management long term success lies not in garnering short term returns but avoiding the pitfalls that lead to large losses of invested capital. While it is not popular in the media to point out the headwinds that face investors in the months ahead - it is also...Interview W/ Congressman Brady on Fiscal Cliff Vote
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 3, 2013
In an exclusive interview with Congressman Kevin Brady on KSEV 700 I ask the simple question: "Why did you vote 'yes' for the Senate bill to resolve the 'fiscal cliff?'" The answer was not what I fully expected.
There are a couple of issues that I am still...Cliff Deal Charts - Just Charts
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 2, 2013
With the meida channels flooded with commentary over the resolution of the fiscal cliff - I thought just a few simple charts could make things just a bit easier to understand.
Pork Packed "Cliff" Bill's 8 Subsidies
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 2, 2013
NAKED CAPITALISM
January 2, 2013
By: Matt Stroller
Throughout the months of November and December, a steady stream of corporate CEOs flowed in and out of the White House to discuss the impending fiscal cliff. Many of them, such as Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs,...The Dangerous Blindspots Of Clueless Keynesians
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 2, 2013
OF TWO MINDS
January 2. 2013
By: Charles Hugh Smith
The Keynesian model is a Cargo Cult, mired in a distant, romanticized past where Central Planning, intervention and manipulation were solutions rather than the root of the economy's fatal disease.
If we want to...Cliff Resolved - Deficit Set To Explode
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 1, 2013
In a stunning turn of events the Republican controlled House of Representatives passed the Senate's bill to raise taxes with no cuts to spending. In my post earlier today I detailed the various tax increases, and few spending cuts, that was passed by the Senate. I...Senate "Cliff" Bill Unlikely To Pass House
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 1, 2013
At the end of November I wrote "The Definition Of Insanity: Republicans" where in I detailed a reasonable negotiation between the Democrats and Republicans on settling the "Fiscal Cliff" issue. Well, late last night, the Senate passed a bill with 89 votes that only...Fox Business - Investing Ahead Of FIscal Cliff
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 28, 2012
In a "Fox Business Exclusive" interview I discussed with Ashley Websters the issues surrounding the "Fiscal Slope" and how to invest accordingly around the issues that we face ahead. Our focus continues to be on income, and capital preservation, through dividend...Interview With Baker-Patrick On Impact Of Fiscal Cliff
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 28, 2012
I recently spent a few minutes with Chris Baker and Dan Patrick discussing the impact of the "Fiscal Cliff" on the economy and the financial markets. As we slide into the end of the year with no resolution in sight the implications of cuts in spending and rising taxes...Another Use For The Yield Curve
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 28, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST
December 28, 2012
By: Tom McClellan - McClellan Market Report
Last week, I looked at the yield curve as modeled by the spread between the 1-year and 10-year yields on Treasury Notes. That’s not the entirety of all maturities on the entire curve,...7 Retirement Planning Myths Debunked
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 28, 2012
AP PERSONAL FINANCE PRESS
December 24, 2012
By: Dave Carpenter
No matter how many years you are from calling it quits, it's essential to have some kind of plan in mind for financing retirement.
The days of counting on Uncle Sam and a company pension to carry you...Consumer Confidence Composite Turns Down
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 27, 2012
The most recent release of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index showed a steep decline not only in current sentiment but also in future expectations. Econoday summed it up well:
"The consumer confidence report shows hard evidence that the fiscal cliff...Chart Of The Day: Claims Not Translating Into Full-Time Jobs
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 27, 2012
"CNN Money: The number of newly unemployed seeking jobless benefits fell more sharply than expected last week, taking a key reading to its lowest level in more than four years, the government reported Thursday.
There were 350,000 filing for initial jobless claims...King Report - Structural End Game To Fiscal Cliff
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 27, 2012
THE KING REPORT
December 27, 2012
By: Bill King
(Excerpt From Full Report)
It’s not just a temporary political event
There are roughly 127 million people who receive government transfers or benefits.
61 million recipients of Social Security and Medicare
66...Why 2013 Could Be A Good Year Economically
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 27, 2012
THE WASHINGTON POST / WONK BLOG
December 26, 2012
By: Neil Irwin
(Note from Streettalklive: I don't necessarily agree with Mr. Irwin's points. However, in the context of a balanced approach we need to consider both sides of the economic argument in order to...Chart Of The Day: Retail Sales & Excuses
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 26, 2012
Retail sales, as I expected, have turned out to be much weaker than what the National Retail Federation (NRF), and other analysts, previously presumed. The excuses for the weakness, however, were just as much off the mark as the original analysts' estimates. ...6 Things To Do In 2013
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 26, 2012
WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 26, 2012
By: Brett Arends
Most financial-planning advice, like most New Year's resolutions, is too complex or too banal.
Half of it is designed for Type-A drill sergeants who already alphabetize their refrigerators. The other half...Fed Policy Erodes Productivity Gains
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 26, 2012
WASHINGTON TIMES
December 26, 2012
By: Richard Rahn
How is it possible that the government can spend almost twice as much as it takes in without having high inflation? The fact is that over a long period of time, it can’t. In the short run, which can be a few years,..."Sandy Effect" Boosts Economic Data
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 21, 2012
The slew of economic releases over the last couple of days have all had two things in common: 1) the data has been markedly improved which has given a silver lining to the economic storm clouds we have witnessed over the last several months; and 2) the fingerprint of...Economic Deluge Chart Book
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 20, 2012
It never fails that when I am traveling it will be a day that there are major events occurring within the financial markets. Today was one of those days. As I was trapped on an airplane watching the economic headlines scroll across the screen of the gentleman...Why Reported Inflation Seems Different Than Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 20, 2012
The subject of inflation has remained an emotionally charged topic of debate over the last several years. As rising prices for individuals, and businesses, has negatively impacted their prosperity; reported inflation has remained at very low levels. With the Fed...GM Bailout Will Cost Taxpayers Billions
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 20, 2012
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
December 20, 2012
Not only were Americans lied to about the costs, but the bailout underscores why replacing market forces with federal bailouts doesn't work.
The Obama administration says it will unload 200 million shares - or about 40% of...Shiller: Housing Hasn't Bottomed Yet
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 20, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST
December 20, 2012
By: Cullen Roche
In an interview on CNBC earlier today Robert Shiller provided his outlook for housing. Shiller says house prices haven't necessarily bottomed yet.
"A lot of people seem to think that if the market turns...13 Investment Themes For 2013
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 20, 2012
USA TODAY
December 19, 2012
By: Adam Shell
1. Fill up on domestic energy shares.
The search for new energy sources in the USA that can heat homes, fuel cars and power factories is a hot growth industry. The nation is aggressively working to reduce its dependence on...Jeremy Siegel On "Dow 15000"
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 19, 2012
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES
December 18, 2012
By: Robert Huebscher
Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a Senior Investment Strategy Advisor to Wisdom Tree Funds. His book, Stocks for the...Gundlach On The Fiscal Cliff Circus
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 19, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
December 18, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
From the sheer hypocrisy of a fight over a few billion dollars when faced with trillion dollar deficits and the eventual austerity that will be forced upon the US, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach expounds on his growing...Three Lies About The "Volcker Rule"
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 18, 2012
THE NATION
December 17, 2012
By: Alexis Goldstein
On December 13th, the House Financial Services Committee convened what is likely to be the last hearing of this Congressional session for the purposes of seeking “alternatives” to the Volcker Rule. The Volcker Rule,...At 11th Hour - A Deal Begins To Emerge
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 18, 2012
REAL CLEAR MARKETS
December 18, 2012
By: Deana Furchtgott-Roth
Late on Monday President Obama proposed allowing taxes to rise in 2013 only for families making over $400,000 in annual adjusted gross income, rather than his prior level of $250,000. Plus, he will...Chart Of The Day: Sandy Weighs On Empire Index
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 17, 2012
The New York Fed released its monthly manufacturing survey for December which showed a decrease in activity in the region to -8.1 from -5.22 in November. The current reading has kept the survey in negative territory for five consecutive months which is the longest...Roach Motel Monetary Policy
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 17, 2012
HUSSMAN FUNDS
December 17, 2012
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
While we continue to observe some noise and dispersion in various month-to-month economic reports, the growth courses of production, consumption, sales, income and new order activity remain relatively...5 Myths About Tax Reform
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 17, 2012
THE WASHINGTON POST
December 17, 2012
By: Greg Ip
Greg Ip is the U.S. economics editor of the Economist and the author of “The Little Book of Economics: How the Economy Works in the Real World.”
As the nation’s leaders seek to keep the country from heading over the...Sandy Effect Pushes Production Higher
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 14, 2012
Just after Hurricane Sandy made landfall I wrote:
"While the recent impact of Hurricane Sandy is yet to be assessed this could boost economic output in the very short term by roughly 0.5% which could push a recession in the U.S. out to the 2nd or 3rd quarter of...The Federal Reserve's Zombie Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 14, 2012
FOX BUSINESS NEWS
December 12, 2012
By: Elizabeth MacDonald
Deutsche Bank is out with a new warning that says the Federal Reserve’s latest round of an estimated $1.02 trillion in total annual purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities is creating...Fiscal Cliff: Proposals And Possible Outcomes
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 14, 2012
USA TODAY
December 13, 2012
By: Susan Davis
President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner have competing offers to cut about $4 trillion from future deficits over the next 10 years as part of an effort to avert the year-end "fiscal cliff." These are the broad...Fed Downgrades Economic Outlook
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 13, 2012
The Federal Reserve meeting for December came with few real surprises. The two important actions that were eyed by the financial markets were the pledge to continue artificially suppressing interest rates and the extension of monetary actions. Both of these goals...Ray Dalio: Future Not So Bright
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 13, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST
December 13, 2012
By: Cullen Roche
Interesting comments here from Ray Dalio at the Dealbook conference. This the is first glimpse at the fund manager’s 2013 outlook.
Business Insider has provided a nice summary:
At the Dealbook conference,...Jeff Gundlach Shows Why US Growth Is So Expensive
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 13, 2012
DeBord Report
December 12, 2012
By: Matthew DeBord
Southern California is home to a trio of important bond funds: PIMCO, TCW, and DoubleLine Capital. All of these have executives who routinely comment on the global financial system, although PIMCO and DoubleLine...What We Searched For In 2012
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 13, 2012
GOOGLE
December 12, 2012
This really doesn't have anything to do with the financial markets but thought it was a great montage, put together by Google, of the top searches for 2012. It covers the good, the bad and the interesting and reminds us of the things that we...Trade Deficit - Recession Warning Ticks Up
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 12, 2012
Last month we saw a small uptick in exports that got economists all excited that the domestic economy was avoiding the drag from the Euro area recession. We wrote then:
"If the data is truly improving we will need to see a string of consecutive positive months...Why We Keep Blowing Bubbles
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 12, 2012
THE ECONOMIST
December 12, 2012
ONE of the most mysterious market phenomena is momentum - the tendency for fast-rising stocks to keep going up. How come such an obvious market anomaly is not arbitraged away?
I have referred in previous columns to the work of Paul...China: QE Opposite Of Deleveraging
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 12, 2012
CRI ENGLISH.COM
December 12, 2012
By: Xing Yihang
Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan said Monday that if the process of deleveraging is disrupted by quantitative easing, asset prices might drop sharply and remain volatile.
When delivering a...NFIB: More About The Economy Than The Election
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 11, 2012
Today the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their monthly survey. In short, economic confidence collapsed. From the NFIB Release:
Small Business Optimism Index dropped 5.6 points in November, bottoming out at 87.5. The two major events...Client Brief: Dealing With Uncertainty
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 11, 2012
In my November 11th weekly missive I stated: "I highly believe that the market will bounce in the coming days ahead simply as a resolution to the very over stretched and oversold condition of the market. Sellers have likely been exhausted in the short term." While...No Recession Yet...
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 11, 2012
ALHAMBRA PARTNERS
December 11, 2012
By: Joe Calhoun
Is the US economy already in a recession? That’s what Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute believes. He made the media rounds last week and his message was a simple one – the US economy has...Secular Bear Markets - Volatility Without Return
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 11, 2012
HUSSMAN FUNDS
December 11, 2012
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Present market and economic conditions highlight a fairly dramatic disparity between continued economic and valuation headwinds (particularly on a “cyclical” horizon of 18-24 months) and complacent...10 Things You Should Know About Economics
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 10, 2012
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY
December 10, 2012
This is a list of ten things that debaters should know about economics. The purpose of this page is not to provide a full education in economics, but to provide ammunition for debate rounds. I have written the items in...ECRI - The Tell-Tale Chart
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 8, 2012
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE - ECRI
December 8. 2012
Following our September 2011 recession call, we clarified its likely timing in December 2011. Based on the historical lead times of ECRI’s leading indexes, we concluded that, if it didn’t start in the first...Have We Seen The Peak Of Employment?
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 7, 2012
In my November 5th report on employment I stated: "...when taking into account the recent slate of economic weakness, post-election we are likely to see many of the recent job gains revised away as the data aligns itself with overall economic activity. The STA...The Q Ratio Monthly Update
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 7, 2012
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT.COM
December 7, 2012
By: Doug Short
Note from dshort: Here is a fresh look at the Q Ratio, updated with Q3 2012 Flow of Funds data released earlier today.
The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock...The Recession You Voted For...
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 7, 2012
FORBES
December 6, 2012
By: Peter Ferrara
President Obama seems to have a strategy to terminate all of the Bush tax cuts, not just those for "the rich," as he has been saying since 2008. He is offering the Republicans exactly zero concessions in the "fiscal cliff"...Consumer Debt - Still A Long Way To Go.
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 6, 2012
I have seen numerous articles as of late discussing how the average American family has finally delevered their household balance sheet at last. This would be good news as lower debt levels means more personal savings which would lead to productive investment. It...Leading Indicators And Recessions
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 6, 2012
HUSSMAN FUNDS
December 6, 2012
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
With industrial production, capacity utilization, real disposable income, real personal consumption, real sales retail and food service sales, and real manufacturing and trade sales uniformly declining in...Mr. Burns Explains The Fiscal Cliff
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 6, 2012
HULU
If you don't understand the "Fiscal Cliff" then maybe a simplistic explanation from the illustrious Mr. Burns of "The Simpson's" fame can clarify things for you.
"It's just common sense. Rich people feel things more deeply than common people."
Sometimes you...ISM Composite - Back To Pre-Crash Levels
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 5, 2012
The recent release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey showed a small pickup in November rising to 54.7 from 54.2 previously. Econoday wrote:
"The non-manufacturing sector picked up steam in November but the gains did not lead to new hiring. The ISM's index rose...Thought Experiment: Why Obama Wants The Fiscal Cliff
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 5, 2012
Why would President Obama willingly choose to go over the fiscal cliff?
Obama already knows that such an event would create an economic drag in the next year of nearly 4% as the various taxes and mandated spending cuts sap economic strength. After four years of...Invest In Bonds - Not Bond Funds
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 5, 2012
BONDSQUAWK
December 5, 2012
By: Rom Badilla
Many investors try to keep things simple by investing in funds in order to capture returns. While widely used, Mutual Funds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) may not be for everyone, especially investors who are looking for...Obama's Great Pre-Election Ruse
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 5, 2012
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
December 5, 2012
Editorial
Economy: Little noticed in President Obama's "fiscal cliff" plan is a demand for a huge new stimulus package. Wait! Wasn't he and everyone in the press telling us just before the election how the economy was...Why Taxing The Rich Will Hurt Everyone Else
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 4, 2012
FORBES
November 3, 2012
By: Charles Kadlec
President Barack Obama’s campaign to raise tax rates on the top 2% will cause far more economic pain to the 98% than to the truly rich. First, the truly rich have already demonstrated their ability to avoid much of the...Gross: We May Need Another Decade For Healing
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 4, 2012
PIMCO
December 3, 2012
By: William H. Gross
You didn't build that ..........332
I built that ........................206
Well, I guess that settles it: you didn’t build that after all. Or maybe you did, but not all of it. Or maybe like the convoluted John Lennon...ISM - Outlook Declines
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 3, 2012
The recent release of the ISM Manufacturing index continues to point to signs of a slowing economy. For the most recent month the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined 2.2 percentage points to 49.5 from October's reading of 51.7. This reading, which is what is...The Ugly Truth Of Social Security
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 3, 2012
BRUCEKRASTING.COM
December 3, 2012
By: Bruce Krasting
Social Security (SS) has released its estimates for the December data for benefits payed and taxes received. With this info, I can estimate the 2012 results that will be formally reported in five-months. It was a...12 Investing Rules For The Next 40 Years
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 3, 2012
WSJ MARKETWATCH
December 1, 2012
By: Brett Arends
Doom and gloom are filling the air. Some economists and market gurus warn that we may be going into another recession. Indeed, some say we may already be in a recession. And what will happen if we head over the...Personal Income And Spending Weigh On Economic Recovery Hopes
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 30, 2012
The personal income and spending report this morning left a lot to be desired for those expecting a stronger economic environment soon. However, the report fell well in line with what I have been expecting over the past several months (see here, here and here) as the...Is Student-Loan Debt Crisis Worse Than We Thought?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 30, 2012
TIME
November 30, 2012
By: Martha C. White
A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York delivers generally positive news about the economy with one glaring exception: student-loan debt. The amount of debt and delinquencies are climbing, and some experts...Bill Ackman: The Basics Of Stock Market Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 29, 2012
Investor Bill Ackman has produced an excellent commentary on the basics of fundamental analysis and investing. Starting with a basic lemonade stand he goes through the importance of balance sheet and income statement analysis and how it all ties back into...Q3 GDP - The Devil Is In The Details
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 29, 2012
The good news this morning is that the 2nd estimate of the third quarter (3Q) GDP was revised up from 2.0% initially to 2.7%. This is up sharply from the 2Q print of 1.3%. As usual we will dig down into the numbers and look at the changes in the data but it is...Everything That Is Wrong With Simpson-Bowles
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 29, 2012
ESQUIRE - THE POLITICS BLOG
November 29, 2012
By: Charles P. Pierce
Everything that's wrong with how we are currently discussing the country's economic situation can be summed up in two words — Simpson-Bowles. (It can also be summed up in three words — Meet The...QE-4 Coming To A Printing Press Near You
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 28, 2012
WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 28, 2012
By: Jon Hilsenrath
Three months after launching an aggressive push to restart the lumbering U.S. economy, Federal Reserve officials are nearing a decision to continue those efforts into 2013 as the U.S. faces threats from the...Housing Recovery: What Has Been Forgotten
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 28, 2012
As of late there has been a flood of commentary written about the housing recovery pointing to the bottom in housing and how the revival in housing will drive economic growth in the years ahead. Just recently USA Today wrote:
"Six years since the start of the...Fiscal Cliff Is A Sideshow - It's The Economy, Stupid
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 28, 2012
FORBES
November 27, 2012
By: Carl Schramm
Recently, using the comforting, measured and boring tones perfected by Alan Greenspan, Chairman Bernanke in a speech to the New York Economic Club observed that the best of the policy options open to us might lead us back to...Reasons To Be Thankful About The Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 28, 2012
BARRON'S
November 28, 2012
By: Gene Epstein
Who would have thought the U.S. economy would offer so much to be thankful for? This year's Gratefulness Award goes to Wells Capital Management's chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who in response to my annual...The Definition Of Insanity: Republicans
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 27, 2012
By now there is likely not a single individual who is not aware of the impending "fiscal cliff" and the economic impact that it represents. (For a thorough discussion of the taxes involved you can find a complete listing here.) Then there is the debt ceiling issue....Uh Oh! Bernanke Agrees With Me
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 27, 2012
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
November 27, 2012
By: Joe Calhoun
There’s important potential for the economy to strengthen significantly if there’s a greater level of security and confidence about where we’re going. A plan for resolving the nation’s longer-term...Indications Are Very Bullish
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 27, 2012
WSJ MARKETWATCH
November 27, 2012
By: Lawrence G. McMillan
While there are still some mixed signals for stocks, some very powerful signals have lined up so that the bulls once again have a chance to take control of this market.
The selloff in late October and...CFNAI: Not Seeing The Growth Economists' Predict
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 26, 2012
In a post by my friend Cullen Roche at PragCap he pointed out that many economists are suggesting that the second estimate of Q3 GDP, which showed an initial estimate of 2.0% annualized growth, will be revised sharply upward to 2.8%. This 2.8% bump in annualized...The Four Debt Ceiling Possibilities
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 26, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
November 26, 2012
An extended excerpt from Bill Buckler of The Privateer
The Four Major Possibilities For 2013
There are four likely “scenarios” for what will happen when the US Congress - and the president - come up against the limit to the Treasury’s...Still Think You Can Beat The Market
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 26, 2012
TIM HARFORD
November 26, 2012
By: Tim Harford, The Undercover Economist
The search for anomalies covers an almost unlimited number of potential patterns. Some of them may be real, but many emerge by chance alone
One of the most maligned ideas in economics is...Chart Of The Day: LEI -- Leading To Lagging Ratio
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 23, 2012
While the general consensus from the media, and the majority of analysts, is that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession - there have been numerous indicators that have continued to point to deterioration in the economic fabric. Most recently industrial production in...Be Careful Jumping On Bernanke's Bandwagon
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 21, 2012
This past Tuesday all eyes were on Bernanke as he gave his speech at the Economic Club in New York. Initially the markets sold off as no mention of further easing programs were mentioned but rebounded on his closing remarks. Out of the entire speech the media, and...Greek Debt Number Puzzle Grows Trickier
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 20, 2012
THE NEW YORK TIMES
November 20, 2012
By. Reuters
Since the start of the Greek debt debacle, Athens and its European allies have battled to make the numbers add up and after three years of striving and two bailouts, it is still unclear whether they will get...Is U.S. Economic Growth Over?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 20, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
November 20, 2012
By: Tyler Durden / Art Cashin
As investors' and traders' attention spans diminish at ever-increasing speed, it is perhaps useful to step back and survey a landscape of global economic growth from a longer-term panorama in order to grasp...Higher Rates Would Boost Growth
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 20, 2012
WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 20, 2012
By: Michael S. Derby
The Federal Reserve believes aggressively easy monetary policy is the key to lowering unemployment. A new paper argues increasing rates may be the only thing that can get the economy moving again.
The...Market Bounces Off Support - What Now?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 19, 2012
For the past couple of weeks we have been warning investors NOT to panic sell as the decline from the recent market highs ensued. The selloff had gotten the markets to very oversold conditions as concerns about the "fiscal cliff" and the "debt ceiling" pushed money...Chart Of The Day: Decoupling Has Ended
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 19, 2012
Over the past year there have been many articles published about the decoupling of the U.S. economy from the the Eurozone. The belief was based on the simple fact that the Eurozone was facing a debt crisis, combined with austerity measures, which the U.S. would avoid....We'll Never Reach The Fiscal Cliff
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 19, 2012
FORBES
November 19, 2012
By: John Tamny
Supply-siders and Keynesians don’t agree on much these days, but when it comes to the alleged “fiscal cliff”, both sides are in agreement that jumping off this ledge would bring tragic economic consequences. Though a strong...Buy & Hold Is Dead! But It Never Worked In The First Place
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 19, 2012
WASHINGTON'S BLOG
November 19, 2012
CNBC, Market Watch, Forbes, Kiplinger, Wall Street Journal, CNN Money, The Street, Mark Cuban and others say that buy and hold is dead.
Lubos Pastor of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and his colleagues have...50 Truths About Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 16, 2012
MOTLEY FOOL
November 16, 2012
By: Morgan Housel
Sorry, but ...
1. Saying "I'll be greedy when others are fearful" is much easier than actually doing it.
2. The gulf between a great company and a great investment can be extraordinary.
3. Markets go through at...6 Buys, 7 Sells For The 2013 Recession
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 16, 2012
WSJ MARKETWATCH
November 16, 2012
By: Paul Farrell
Streettalklive Note: This article aligns extremely closely with our views for the coming year. We are currently are, and have been, making investments in rental properties, income producing assets, fixed income,...Goat Economics: Laffer Curve Is No Joke
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 16, 2012
REAL CLEAR MARKETS
November 16, 2012
By: Charlie Musick
Goat herding is one of the world's oldest economic professions. It is because goats are excellent at reproduction, and easy to feed and raise. A female goat will on average birth around 2 kids per year. Simple...Already Weak Manufacturing Impacted By Sandy
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 15, 2012
There wasn't much good news out of the New York and Philadelphia regional Fed surveys which covered the month of November. At the headline the New York "Empire" Manufacturing survey improved modestly to -5.22 from October's read of -6.16 while the Philadelphia Fed...Monetary vs Fiscal Policy - The Fed's Losing Battle
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 15, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
November 15, 2012
By: Cullen Roche
The recent market declines have been pretty one sided – investors are worried about the impact of fiscal policy on the economy. But what's most interesting about the recent decline is that it comes right on the...Existing Home Sales - Weakness Beneath The Headlines
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 15, 2012
MARK HANSON BLOG
October 21, 2012
By: Mark Hanson
Nobody ever looks at the NSA results and internals. I do. Especially when the recent trend has been toward heavy, favorable seasonal adjustments in all sorts of data releases.
The following charts illustrate...Retail Sales - You Can't Blame It All On Sandy
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 14, 2012
The release of the retail sales report for October missed estimates coming in at -0.3% versus last month's upwardly revised 1.3% bump. Immediately, the media went to blaming Hurricane Sandy for the impact. There are two problems with this excuse. First, Hurricane...Technical Analysis Fact & Fiction
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 14, 2012
MERCENARY TRADER
November 12, 2012
By: J. Sparrow
“Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo…
“There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the...Deep Truths About Markets & Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 14, 2012
CROSSING WALL STREET
November 14, 2012
By: Eddie Elfenbein
In his 1988 Baseball Abstract, Bill James listed a number of lessons had had learned so far through his study of baseball statistics. In that vein, I’ll list some observations that I’ve learned over the...Personal Finance Seminar Presentation
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 13, 2012
I wanted to give a special thanks to the participants in the personal finance seminar I hosted recently. The seminar was focused primarily on the economic and market history as it relates to retirement planning. The economic realities of sustained high debt levels,...NFIB - Pre-Election Hopes Of Romney Win
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 13, 2012
The NFIB released its small business survey for October which showed a small uptick in optimism among small businesses from 92.8 in September to 93.1 in October. However, it is important to note that this survey was completed prior to the November election and had the...2013: 10-Part Test To Bull Or Bear Market
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 13, 2012
WSJ MARKETWATCH
November 13, 2012
By: Paul Farrell
New record? Yes. Dow 14,165, “almost there” says Barron’s in its latest Big Money poll. Still, hedge your bets: “After three years of handsome returns for U.S. stocks,” optimism about 2013 is “waning as the list of...Obama Is Misdiagnosing Economic Stagnation
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 13, 2012
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
November 13, 2012
By: Richard Rahn
Last Friday, President Obama said, “We can’t just cut our way to prosperity. If we are serious about reducing the deficit, we have to combine spending cuts with revenue — and that means asking the wealthiest...Hussman: Lopsided Risks
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 13, 2012
HUSSMAN FUNDS
November 13, 2012
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
In mid-September, our estimates of prospective market return/risk dropped to the lowest figure we’ve observed in a century of market history (see Low Water Mark). That week turned out to be the high of the...America Isn't The Greatest Country Anymore
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 12, 2012
This weekend I had my first opportunity to watch "Newsroom," an HBO series, and I was struck by the opening sequence of the show as Jeff Daniels, aka Will McAvoy, discusses why America WAS the greatest country in the world - but no longer is. Here are the stats as he..."The Star Spangled Banner Is Stupid"
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 12, 2012
The exact quote from Bill Press on "Current TV" is "The Star Spangled Banner is stupid and embarrassing." As many of you know I am a huge patriot, and lover of this country, and it deeply saddens me when idiots like Bill Press bash our national heritage. Three of...Net Export Prices And Wholesale Trade
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 9, 2012
I discussed the potential economic ramifications of declining exports on domestic businesses and employment earlier. The recent releases of import and export prices, along with wholesale trade data, add further confirmation that the economy is struggling.
In the...Trade Deficit - Increase In Exports To Be Short Lived
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 9, 2012
The U.S. trade balance in September improved, largely on petroleum, with a rebound in exports. This was good news for a single economic data point and it sent mainstream economists to mistakenly begin boosting third quarter GDP estimates to 2.9% from the 1st estimate...Post-Election Wrap Up: Economy and Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 8, 2012
I visited with my friends Jose Guinan and Mike Iscovitz at Fox News about the effects on the economy and the markets now that the election is over. With nothing really changed in terms of the Administration's make up the continuation of gridlock is likely to prove a...Always Be Closing
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 8, 2012
FOX BUSINESS NEWS
November 8, 2012
By: David Asman
The night before the election, the Manhattan Institute held a dinner at which the great playwright David Mamet was honored. You may have seen a movie made from Mamet’s most famous play “Glengarry Glen Ross.” It’s...America Has Sown The Seeds Of Its Own Demise
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 8, 2012
REAL CLEAR MARKETS
November 8, 2012
By: Dean Kalahar
In the aftermath of the election of 2012, a new reality must be digested by all Americans. Working within the precepts of a democratic republic, The American public freely exercised their choice and voted for a...The Next Four Years Won't Be As Good As The Last
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 7, 2012
The people have spoken and President Obama will serve another four years presiding over the United States. Furthermore, there is very little change to the makeup of the House and the Senate, which leaves the Administration in the same battle for control as it was...Real Hourly Wages - The Disappointing Math
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 6, 2012
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES - DOUG SHORT
November 6, 2012
By: Doug Short
I've continued to ponder the October employment data released on Friday. Today I want to look more closely at two key numbers in the monthly employment report: Average Hourly Earnings and Average...Recession Probability - 100%
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 6, 2012
During my usual morning reading process I came across a posting on PragCap by Cullen Roche regarding a chart of U.S. recession probabilities. The chart can be found at the St. Louis Federal Reserve website and is derived from a study by J. Piger and M. Chauvet, from...9 Scenarios That Will Lead To The Next Crash
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 6, 2012
WSJ MARKETWATCH
November 6, 2012
By: Paul B. Farrell
“Is the U.S. Condemned by History to Slow Growth?” asks Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Yes. But for traders and investors, it’s far worse than just bearish slow growth. Plan for no growth or zero growth.
Why? Wall...Has Housing Bottomed?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 6, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
November 2, 2012
From Simon Black of Sovereign Man
After an almost uninterrupted period of decline over the last few years, US home prices now have some positive momentum.
For one, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities has seen its...ISM Composite, Employment & Black Helicopters
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 5, 2012
The conservative media, and blogosphere, has been awash in claims that the latest employment data has been manipulated to support the election efforts of the current Administration. Normally, I dismiss such claims out of hand, however, during the writing of this past...A Capitalist's Dilemma, Whoever Wins On Tuesday
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 5, 2012
THE NEW YORK TIMES
November 3, 2012
By: Clayton M. Christensen
WHATEVER happens on Election Day, Americans will keep asking the same question: When will this economy get better?
In many ways, the answer won’t depend on who wins on Tuesday. Anyone who says...Economic Data Flood - Weakness Behind The Headlines
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 1, 2012
Due to the impact of Hurricane Sandy on the East Coast several major economic reports were moved from October 30th to the already very crowded economic release day of November 1st. Therefore, I am going to touch on the major reports from behind the headlines analyzing...Chart Of The Day: Earnings Rebound Not Likely
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 1, 2012
BUSINESS INSIDER
October 31, 2012
By: Matthew Boesler
After third-quarter earnings reporting, during which profit growth is expected to turn negative for the first time since the financial crisis, most Wall Street strategists were hoping that the worst would be...Save GM - Vote Romney
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 1, 2012
FORBES
November 1, 2012
By: Louis Woodhill
President Obama has been touting his bailout of General Motors as a reason for people in Michigan and Ohio to vote for him. However, there is one small problem with his argument. Regardless of the past, GM's only hope for...Market Thoughts: Hurricane, Election & Fiscal Cliff
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 31, 2012
Just recently I sat down with my good friend Mike Iscovitz at Fox to discuss the markets. With the election just ahead and the damage from Hurricane Sandy still being sorted out there is the potential for another Bush-Gore voting debacle in the days ahead which could...Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prosperity
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 30, 2012
What is really causing the economic malaise that the U.S. faces today? Most economists believe that it is the lack of aggregate demand that is causing the problem which can be rectified by continued deficit spending. The current Administration believes that it is...The Coming Economic Hurricane
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 30, 2012
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
October 30, 2012
By: Joe Calhoun
As the Northeast prepares for Hurricane Sandy, markets are preparing for their own perfect storm. The first feeder bands are coming ashore now and whether we feel the full brunt depends to a large degree...When Markets Drive The Economy - Cash Flow Is King
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 30, 2012
FINANCIAL TIMES
October 30, 2012
By: David Rosenberg
There was a time, not that long ago, when it was the economy that drove asset prices such as equity and real estate valuations. Today, the causation is viewed, even in policy circles, as running in the opposite...Personal Incomes Offset By Rise In Food & Energy
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 29, 2012
The Bureau Of Economic Analysis reported that Personal Incomes in September advanced 0.4 percent from August which had increased by only 0.1 percent. More importantly, wages & salaries gained 0.3 percent tacking onto the 0.1 percent increase in August. Real...A Visual Guide To The Federal Reserve
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 29, 2012
This is an interesting infographic on the history and function of the Federal Reserve. Presented without commentary.
Ignore Perils Of Low Rates At Your Own Risk
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 29, 2012
BLOOMBERG
October, 28 2012
By: A. Gary Shilling
The U.K. and the euro zone are in a recession, the U.S. economy is teetering, and a hard landing is unfolding in China. Softness in these three paramount economies is dragging down the rest of the world. So why do most...GDP: The Warning From Exports
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 26, 2012
Over the past several months we have been discussing that this is no longer your "father's economy." What we have meant by this is the economic environment today is vastly different than that which most of our parents grew up in. We recently discussed in "Debt:...Data: The Importance Of Proper Analysis
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 26, 2012
HUSSMAN FUNDS
October 26, 2012
By: John Hussman, Ph.D.
For anyone who works to infer information from a broad range of evidence, one of the important aspects of the job is to think carefully about the structure of the data – what is sometimes called the...New Home Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines Suggest
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 24, 2012
"New U.S. single-family home sales surged in September to their highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years, further evidence the housing market recovery is gaining steam. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales increased 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted...Are High Yield Stocks In A Bubble?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 24, 2012
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN - CONTEXT
Via Pragmatic Capitalist
October 17, 2012
By: Joseph G. Paul
Streettalklive Note: This is a topic that I have been discussing for the last few months. The chase for yield is pushing investors into stocks that are becoming extremely...How Will Stocks Act Post-Election
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 24, 2012
WSJ MARKETWATCH
October 24, 2012
By: Mark Hulbert
Would the stock market react any differently following a President Obama victory than to a Mitt Romney win?
The honest answer is that no one knows. I therefore would be skeptical of any confident forecast of how the...Chart Of The Day: Where Do Your Tax Dollars Go
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 23, 2012
The Presidential debate on foreign policy recently discussed much about the tax dollars spent on defense. The question of how much to spend on the defense of the United States is always a huge debate. Democrats tend to lean to the side of "Peace Through Diplomacy" and...Richmond Fed Survey - More Evidence Of Weakness
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 23, 2012
Last week we discussed the release of the Philadelphia Fed Survey which showed a slight uptick in the headline number. The problem, however, was that EVERY single gauge of future activity was negative. The recent release of the Richmond Manufacturing Survey provides...Debt - Driving The Economy Since 1980
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 22, 2012
Debt. There isn't a day that passes as of late that the issue of debt doesn't arise. Federal debt and consumer debt (including mortgages) are of the most concern due to its impact on the domestic economy. Debt is, by its very nature, a cancer on economic growth....LG Chem - Another Obama Investment Gone Bad
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 22, 2012
WOODTV.COM
October 19, 2012
By: Ken Kolker
HOLLAND, Mich. (WOOD) - Workers at LG Chem, a $300 million lithium-ion battery plant heavily funded by taxpayers, tell Target 8 that they have so little work to do that they spend hours playing cards and board games,...Raise Taxes And Cut Spending To Reduce Debt? No.
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 22, 2012
FORBES
October 21, 2012
By: Nathan Lewis
At some point, the U.S. government will have to deal with its exploding debt load. Typically, we hear that the solution involves “some combination of reduced spending and higher taxes.” Proponents often claim that this...Reviewing Risk/Reward And Entry Targets
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 19, 2012
For the last several weeks we have been discussing the overbought conditions of the market and that on a risk/reward basis investors would be substantially better off to wait for corrections in the market before adding equity exposure. At the beginning of...Chart Of The Day: LEI Coincident-To-Lagging Ratio
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 19, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator Index rose 0.6% in September which was a tad better than estimates. However, the August report was revised sharply downward from a -0.1% decline to -0.4% so the actual increase in September was about in line with...Art Cashin On The 25th Anniversary Of The 1987 Crash
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 19, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
October 19, 2012
By: Art Cashin / UBS Securities
On this day (+1) in 1987 (that's 25 years ago, if you are burdened with a graduate degree), the NYSE had one of its most dramatic trading days in its 220 year history.
It suffered its largest single day...Philly Fed Bounces - Internals Weaken
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 18, 2012
This morning's release of the Philadelphia Fed survey showed a jump at the headline from -1.9 in September to 5.7 in October. On the surface this is good news as it reflects a manufacturing region that is growing versus contracting. The chart below shows the Philly...Missing 30k Unemployment Claims Found - Claims Jump 46k
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 18, 2012
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES/DSHORT
October 18, 2012
By: Doug Short
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 388,000 new claims number was a 46,000 increase from the previous week's upward revision of 3,000. Today's number...The Fed's Mission Creep
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 18, 2012
WASHINGTON POST
October 17, 2012
By: George Will
In the 1920s, in the wee small hours of the mornings, employees at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas sang while they worked. One, Jack Culpepper, went into vaudeville, where he teamed up with a dance partner named...Housing Starts and Permits: Euphoria May Be Premature
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 17, 2012
"The Most Bullish Development On The Entire Globe"- this was the always bullish Joe Weisenthal's headline this morning following the release of the New Home Starts and Building Permits data this morning. "It's hard to think of a bigger bullish trend right now, at...Hunt & Hoisington: 3Q 2012 Review And Outlook
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 17, 2012
HOISINGTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO.
October 17, 2012
By: Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van R. Hoisington
Intro By Tyler Durden / Zero Hedge
Entering the final quarter of the year, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington (H&H) describe domestic and global economic conditions as extremely...The 40 Year Dow Jones Cycle
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 17, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
October 17, 2012
By: Tom McClellan / McClellan Market Report
Many cycles analysts talk about the "long cycle" of the stock market being the 54-year Kondratiev Wave, named for the Russian researcher who wrote about long economic cycles in 1925....Market Rallies As Expected
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 16, 2012
For the last several weeks in our weekend missive we have been recommending increasing equity exposure as the market consolidated post the QE3 announcement. In this past weekend's missive we specifically stated: "The market has continued to correct over the last week...Sorry, US Recoveries Really Aren't Different
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 16, 2012
BLOOMBERG
October 15, 2012
By Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
Five years after the onset of the 2007 subprime financial crisis, U.S. gross domestic product per capita remains below its initial level. Unemployment, though down from its peak, is still about...Bair: 5 Steps To Clean Up Wall Street
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 15, 2012
FISCAL TIMES
October 15, 2012
By: Suzanne McGee
Sheila Bair, the former chair of the FDIC, has five recommendations that she'd like to put to this year's presidential candidates to make Wall Street reform more meaningful and effective.
Bair has had a lot of time...Retail Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines Suggest
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 15, 2012
The recent release of the retail sales report for September showed a month over month increase of 1.1%. Econoday stated "The consumer was out spending more than expected in September-even after discounting gasoline prices. And also Apple appears to have bumped the...On Shaky Ground
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 15, 2012
CFO MAGAZINE
October 15, 2012
By: Kate O'Sullivan
Facing uncertainty at home and abroad, CFOs are growing more pessimistic, according to the latest Duke/CFO Business Outlook Survey.
In the face of the ongoing euro-zone crisis and slowing growth in Asia, and...The World Is Stuck In A Vicious Cycle
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 15, 2012
FINANCIAL TIMES
October 14, 2012
By: Lawrence Summers / Charles Eliot
If the global economy was in trouble before the annual World Bank and IMF meetings in Tokyo last week, it is hard to believe that it is now smooth sailing. Indeed, apart from the modest stimulus...Chart Of The Day: JOLT Survey And The Peak Of Employment
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 12, 2012
David Rosenberg noted this morning that: "There are few reports that come out monthly with as much information on the employment situation than the JOLTS data (Job Opening Labor Turnover Survey) from the BLS. It shows the churning and turning that goes on beneath the...Ryan Wins Debate Over Flustered Biden
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 12, 2012
FORBES
October 12, 2012
By: John Tamny
About halfway through last night's debate between Congressman Paul Ryan and Vice President Joe Biden, the VP's answers – and his unsteady countenance – revealed someone who felt he'd lost. Biden's pre-debate spin was that he...Trade Deficit - Recession Risks Increase
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 11, 2012
I recently penned an article entitled "3 Major Risks To The 4th Quarter" wherein we discussed the impact of the Eurozone recession, and slowdown in China, on the domestic economy. In it we stated "The continued recessionary drag across the Eurozone is dampening...Rosenberg, Bianco On US Economy, Labor and QE3
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 11, 2012
The "wealth effect" that the Fed hopes to create by pushing asset prices higher is not the "wealth effect" that is needed by the average consumer who's net worth is lower by $60,000. These are some great insights on central bank action, economy and the...What Wholesale Trade Can Tell Us About 3Q Earnings
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 10, 2012
The wholesale trade data for August continues to paint a picture of weakening consumption. While the latest report saw month-over-month uptick in sales (0.87%) this is the first positive advance after three straight months of declines. While sales are still lower...Student Loans - The Next Subprime Crisis
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 10, 2012
CALAFIA BEACH PUNDIT
October 10, 2012
By: Scott Grannis
Just as the housing crisis was fueled by government demands that banks make it easier for buyers to get a mortgage (e.g., no down payments, floating interest rates, interest-only mortgages, stated income), now...Is Unemployment Set To Explode?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 10, 2012
POLTICIAL CALCULATIONS
October 10, 2012
Now that the average price of gasoline in the United States is clocking in at all-time record levels for this time of year, especially in California, what effect will that factor have upon the official U.S. unemployment rate,...Fox Business - Bull/Bear Market Report
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 9, 2012
Recently joined Fox Business for the afternoon bull / bear report discussing some of the risks laying ahead for stocks. While most of the risks are clearly evident what is disturbing is the clear complacency by which the media and analysts assume that such issues will...NFIB - Small Businesses Don't Agree With BLS
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 9, 2012
Since the release of the most recent BLS Employment Situation Report, which showed an astounding drop in the unemployment rate, I have spent a good bit of time dissecting the release and discussing why the real unemployment rate is really between 17% and 22% depending...Unemployment 7.8% to 22% - Is There A Better Method?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 8, 2012
Recently I wrote "Why The Real Unemployment Rate Is 16.9%"which sparked quite a few e-mails revolving around the issue of the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures unemployment. In that article we discussed the differences between the U-3 and the U-6 rates and...Why The Real Unemployment Rate Is 16.9%
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 5, 2012
During the last 30 years I do not remember a time when the employment report, as released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), has been so closely watched as it has been since the last recession. Each month, when the report is released, it has become a ritual by...Faber And Rogers - "Clueless, Ignorant Leaders"
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 5, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
October 4, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
While the discussions between these two legends varied from Phat Phong nightlife to Dow 30,000, and from China bullishness to AAPL bearishness, it was the conversation about the actions of Bernanke, and more importantly...Romney Got It Right On Jobs and Taxes
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 3, 2012
Let me just say that I am surprised. I have previously stated that Romney really needed to shine in the debate simply because Obama is a proven master orator. Well, Romney not only shined but in many instances controlled the debate. While the debate covered many...What Is The ADS And Why Is It Signaling A Recession?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 3, 2012
The bulk of my job as a portfolio manager is looking at the macro economic data to assess future risks to our portfolio allocations. While technical analysis controls our short term investment risk - it is the longer term macro outlook that most directly impacts our...Apartment Glut Set To Return
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 3, 2012
CNBC
October 3, 2012
By: Diana Olick
One of the biggest upsides to the downturn in housing has been a surge in demand for apartments.
Whether burned by foreclosure or afraid of losing money in homeownership, Americans have run in droves to rent. That resulted in a...What Kids Should Be Studying In College
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 3, 2012
THE WEEKLY STANDARD
October 3, 2012
By: Andy Kessler
Going off to college or, like me, sending your child? Suckers! Why? Because after paying average private college tuition and room and board of $28,500 a year (Harvard is now $54,500), over half of college...3 Major Risks To The 4th Quarter
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 2, 2012
What's to worry about? The world is engulfed in a liquidity tsunami from Japan's QE expansion to the ECB's bond buying program and the Federal Reserve's QE3. Bond yields have fallen for Spain and Italy pulling them out of the danger zone, the flames of the Eurocrisis...Bernanke To Congress: "Butt Out!"
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 2, 2012
THE NEW YORK SUN
October 1, 2012
"Bernanke warns congress to butt out of interest-rate policy discussions . . ." is the headline up on the Drudge Report following the speech today by the Federal Reserve's chairman at Indiana. It sounds to us like the chairman is...Gross: The U.S. And The Ring Of Fire
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 2, 2012
PIMCO
October 1, 2012
By: William H. Gross
I have an amnesia of sorts. I remember almost nothing of my distant past – a condition which at the brink of my 69th year is neither fatal nor debilitating, but which leaves me anchorless without a direction home. Actually,...Have Investors Really Missed Anything?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 1, 2012
In late February, 2012 I wrote "Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin" wherein I discussed that the media, like investors, are the most bullish at the top, and conversely the most bearish at the bottom, of markets. This is why investors, who are consistently inundated...7 Immutable Laws Of Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 1, 2012
GMO
October 1, 2012
By: James Montier
In my previous missive I concluded that investors should stay true to the principles that have always guided (and should always guide) sensible investment, but I left readers hanging as to what I believe those principles...Templeton's 16 Investing Rules
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 1, 2012
FRANKLIN-TEMPLETON FUNDS
October 1, 2012
By: Sir John-Templeton
I can sum up my message by reminding you of Will Rogers' famous advice:
"Don't gamble," he said. "Buy some good stock. Hold it till it goes up...and then sell it. If it doesn't go up, don't buy...Second Recession Horseman Goes Down
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 28, 2012
Recently I analyzed the ECRI recession call saying "Doug [Short] uses the 4 most important components of the economy - consumer spending which makes up more than 70% of GDP, industrial production which leads to employment and incomes which drive consumption. The chart...GDP And Durable Goods - Heading To Recession?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 27, 2012
At the end of August I wrote "Q2 GDP - Nothing Good Happening Here" wherein I stated: "With GDP currently at 1.7%, as of the latest estimate, the decline in overall PCE, Goods, and Durable Goods, is very concerning about the next couple of quarters ahead. While the...Why QE May Not Boost Stocks After All
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 27, 2012
OF TWO MINDS
September 27, 2012
By: Charles Hugh Smith
What if the Fed throws a QE equity-ramp party and the fireworks fizzle?
If there is one dominant consensus in the financial sphere, it is that the Federal Reserve's $85 billion/month bond-and-mortgage-buying...Market Sell Off Pushes Toward Support Levels
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 26, 2012
Over the past three weeks (see here, here and here) I have been reiterating that the markets were due for a correction. The run up in the markets from the May lows, in anticipation of the announcement of QE3 by the Fed in September, took the markets from oversold to...Germany - Could They Leave The Euro?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 26, 2012
FINANCIAL TIMES
September 26, 2012
By: Martin Wolf
Should Germany leave the euro? It is, after all, the big country with an obvious exit option. The question becomes more pertinent after the decision by Angela Merkel, Germany's conservative chancellor, to support...Deja Vu As Lessons Of Meltdown Go Unheeded
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 26, 2012
WSJ MARKETWATCH
September 26, 2012
By: Paul Farrell
Dow skyrockets near 20,000 by 2014? In two years? Then crashes near 10,000 by 2016 presidential elections? Possible? You bet. Déjà vu 2007-2008. So what's your biggest risk as an investor? Listening and acting on...What To Expect From Post-Election Year Markets
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 25, 2012
There has been a lot of ink spilled about how the stock market performs during Presidential election years generally leaning to why investors should be fully invested to the hilt. The current election year, with just three months remaining, has certainly played out to...Economic Data Continues To Weaken
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 24, 2012
When Bernanke launched QE3 at the September FOMC meeting one of his key worries expressed during the following Q&A session was that the economy was much weaker than the Fed would like. The hope is, through the implementation of a bond buying scheme, that a push higher...4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 21, 2012
One of the greatest con's ever perpetuated in the history of man is that "you can win at the investing game." There is no historical evidence that shows that the average investor can outperform a benchmark year-in and year-out over a long period of time. Even the...QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part II
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 21, 2012
Click Here For "QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part I"
Mark Twain once wrote that "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." While this is a statement that is often thrown around by the media, economists and analysts - few of them actually heed the warning. It...Grant: We Are Lab Rats Of Bernanke
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 21, 2012
ZEROHEDGE
September 21, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
You put Jim Grant on TV and someone mentions the Fed and the result every single time is the equivalent of waving a red curtain in front of a rabid bull. This time was no different, as the Interest Rate Observer once...CBO: Obama's Electric Car Initiative To Cost 7.9 Billion
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 21, 2012
REUTERS
September 21, 2012
By Bernie Woodall and Deepa Seetharaman
Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. federal policies to promote electric vehicles will cost $7.5 billion through 2019 and have "little to no impact" on overall national gasoline consumption over the next...The New Con: Three-Card-Mario
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 20, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
September 20, 2011
By: Mark J. Grant - Out Of The Box
The Red Ink in Europe
Sometimes you look at different stories and your focus is on the particular tilt of the headline. Recently there have been posts about the declining exports in both China and...Bernanke's "Risk On, Risk Off" Monetary Policy
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 20, 2012
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 20, 2012
By Benn Steil And Dinah Walker
The Federal Reserve thrilled markets last week with the announcement that it would pump $40 billion into the economy each month through the purchase of mortgage-backed securities. Chairman...Romney Should Be Fighting For The 47%
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 19, 2012
Recently Mitt Romney effectively "stepped in it" by stating that the President Obama could count on the support of 47% of Americans, who rely on government, don't pay tax and "believe they are victims". While the statement was very misguided, and a critical blow to...A Flaw In The QE Expectational Transmission System
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 19, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
September 19, 2012
By: Cullen Roche
I wanted to republish and elaborate on some thoughts I expressed in a previous comment regarding the flaw in QE’s expectational transmission mechanism. In case you’re unaware, a number of people have been...Household Incomes - A Chart Compendium
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 19, 2012
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DOUG SHORT
September 18, 2012
By: Doug Short
Last week the Census Bureau has released the household income data for 2011. It is posted on the Census Bureau website. What I'm featuring in this update is an analysis of the quintile breakdown of...China: A Love-Hate Relationship
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 18, 2012
Just recently both Presidential candidates have taken a "tough-stance" on China hoping to parlay the long running love-hate relationship between the U.S. and China into votes come election time. While American's love cheap products - the sustained levels of high...The Magnitude Of The Mess We're In
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 18, 2012
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 18, 2012
By George P. Shultz, Michael J. Boskin, John F. Cogan, Allan H. Meltzer and John B. Taylor
Sometimes a few facts tell important stories. The American economy now is full of facts that tell stories that you really don't...Face It: 2013 Is Going To A Bummer
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 18, 2012
BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
September 18, 2012
By: Matthew Philips
Whether it’s Barack Obama or Mitt Romney taking the presidential oath of office in January, someone will have the misfortune of overseeing an economy that looks a lot like the one we have today: low...QE3 - Mortgage Rates And Housing
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 17, 2012
Over the weekend Paul Krugman discussed that "This [housing recovery] means that we actually can hope that the Fed’s new policy will boost housing as well as operating through other channels, and therefore that it can act more like conventional monetary policy in...Hussman: Lowest Return vs Risk In A Decade
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 17, 2012
As of Friday, our estimates of prospective return/risk for the S&P 500 have dropped to the single lowest point we've observed in a century of data. There is no way to view this as something other than a warning, but it's also a warning that I don't want to overstate....Volker: Wall Street, Ryan Plan and The Fed
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 17, 2012
NEWSWEEK
September 17, 2012
by Leslie H. Gelb
When Paul Volcker speaks, Republicans and Democrats, labor and business, listen. The former Federal Reserve chair consented to a rare and exclusive interview with Leslie H. Gelb, a frequent columnist for Newsweek...QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part I
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 13, 2012
Earlier this year, as the markets were expecting QE3 from one Fed meeting to the next, I was stating another program would not come until September after data for Q2 GDP could be analyzed. However, as we moved into August, and the markets were rallying strongly on...Fed Announces QE - Initial Thoughts
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 13, 2012
Much to my surprise, and against what seemed logical, Bernanke launched an open ended mortgage backed securities bond buying program for $40 billion a month "until employment begins to show recovery." On the back of that news the equities markets have rallied...Analyzing The ECRI Recession Call
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 13, 2012
This morning Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, visited with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV to discuss his ongoing recession call for the U.S. Achuthan has taken much grief for his call about the U.S. recession since last...Markets Are In "Uncharted" Territory
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 13, 2012
ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT.COM
September 12, 2012
By: Doug Short
Here is a follow-up on my monthly valuation updates. When I started including the Crestmont P/E updates in my monthly valuation reporting, I developed a scatter graph to illustrate the correlation...Import Prices and Wholesale Trade - Weakness Persists
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 12, 2012
Yesterday we discussed the potential economic ramifications of declining exports on domestic businesses and employment. The recent releases of import and export prices, along with wholesale trade data, add further confirmation that the economy is slowing.
In the...Sorkin's Bad Math On AIG "Profit"
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 12, 2012
NAKED CAPITALISM
September 12, 2012
By: Yves Smith
Andrew Ross Sorkin's Bad Math on AIG
Memo to Andrew Ross Sorkin: if you are going to try to discredit someone, it's more effective if you are less obvious about it.
Having missed out on gang attack on Neil...Gundlach: Mirror, Mirror
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 12, 2012
Jeff Gundlach runs Doubleline Total Return Fund (DBLTX) which has had stellar performance since inception. Of course, it should be taken with a note of caution as the bulk of the performance has simply come from the Fed's intentional push to drive interest rates...Trade Deficit - Exports A Major Concern
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 11, 2012
The WSJ reported that: "The U.S. trade deficit expanded modestly in July as the gap with China hit a record high and exports to the euro zone slumped. The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services increased 0.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted $42...NFIB - Good News Beneath The Surface
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 11, 2012
The National Federation of Independent Business issued their monthly small business survey for August showing an increase from 91.2 last month to 92.9 in August. From the NFIB: "As expected, there was no real change in owner optimism in August since nothing happened...Germany To Move Ahead With ESM
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 11, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
September 11, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
Overnight highlights via SocGen:
ESM plaintiff bid over ECB program will not delay September 12 ESM ruling
Spain PM Rajoy vows to not cut pensions, will consider conditions before requesting any aid
German finmin...CNBC - The Fed, QE3 and Jobs
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 10, 2012
Spent the morning with Kelly Evans and Beccy Meehan discussing my views on the upcoming FOMC meeting this week. For the markets it really is a "do or die" scenario as recent run up in prices has everything to do with more injections from the Fed considering that...Stockman: Fed Is Run By Lunatics
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 10, 2012
VIA ZERO HEDGE
September 9, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
Former Reagan OMB Director David Stockman was 'allowed' on CNBC this morning - much to their chagrin now we suspect - and espoused his own brand of truthiness, starting with this epic tirade:
"Ron Paul is the...Obama's Debt Ceiling Fight Unveiled
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 10, 2012
THE WASHINGTON POST
September 8, 2012
By: Bob Woodward
President Obama summoned the top four congressional leaders to the White House on Saturday morning, July 23, 2011. The night before, House Speaker John A. Boehner had withdrawn from negotiations to raise the...Kicking The Can Down The Road...Again
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 10, 2012
COMSTOCK PARTNERS
September 6, 2012
In our view the market has over-reacted to another European plan that, at most, will again "kick the can down the road" rather than provide any long-lasting solutions. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the ECB was planning...Fed Losing Faith - In Themselves?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 10, 2012
FINANCIAL TIMES
September 9, 2012
By: Robin Harding and Chris Giles
These are uneasy times in central banking. The big beasts of the profession who met this month in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, were once the ultimate masters of the universe. Now they are nagged by...Employment Report - Worse Than It Looks
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 7, 2012
There was not much to like in the August, 2012 employment report as released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today. Not only did the headline number miss expectations by a wide margin, an increase of 96,000 jobs versus consensus estimates of 130,000, but both...Draghi's Tiny Bazooka
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 7, 2012
THE TELEGRAPH
September 7, 2012
By: Jeremy Warner
If, like me, you have come to see the single currency as unsustainable in its present form, both politically and economically, then plainly not. But, as with previous ECB initiatives, Mr Draghi has at least managed...Friday Humor - Obama Changing Venues
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 6, 2012
My dear friend Sam Malone, who millions of people accross the country have enjoyed his top rated morning talk show over the past 20 years, is now bringing his unique views and personal style to video with a new series on the Sam Malone Network which is powered by...MarketWatch - 3 Factors Deciding The Next President
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 6, 2012
WSJ - MARKETWATCH
September 6, 2012
By: Lance Roberts
The Romney campaign is asking, "Are you better off?" while the Obama campaign is asking to trust them to finish the job. But while the candidates can give speeches, shake hands and kiss babies all day long,...ECB - A Program To Nowhere
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 6, 2012
The markets have languished for weeks now awaiting news from the Fed and the ECB on further programs to support their respective economies. Both have failed to deliver. We wrote yesterday in "Draghi To Announce Sterilized Bond Purchase Program" that: "The details of...When Good Employment News Is Really Bad News
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 6, 2012
The recent releases of the Challenger Job-Cut and ADP Employment reports provided good news. The job cut report showed a decline in the planned number of layoffs from 36,855 last month to 32,239 this month. This puts layoffs at the second lowest level since the end...About Those Obama Job Gains
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 6, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST
September 6, 2012
By: Cullen Roche
It looks like the Republicans aren't the only ones with a flare for the dramatic. This week's Democratic National Convention has included a great deal of rhetoric about all those jobs President Obama has...SEC - "Get Fleeced - It's Your Problem"
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 6, 2012
PROPUBLICA
September 5, 2012
By: Jesse Eisinger
Fresh from having declined to constrain money market funds, the Securities and Exchange Commission has moved to loosen marketing constraints on hedge funds.
Two weeks ago, the agency threw up its hands and said it...Draghi To Announce Sterilized Bond Purchase Program
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 5, 2012
It will be very likely that tomorrow Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, will announce a plan to buy bonds from the Eurozone countries. The details of the plan will likely NOT be the "bazooka" that the markets have been hoping for. The most likely...Productivity Increases And The Employment Conundrum
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 5, 2012
I remember when I was growing up my father would complain that all this "new **** technology," like facsimile machines and computers, were going to take his job someday. He was right. Eventually, a computer took his job as a warehouse foreman to do the job of...10 Economic Headwinds
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 5, 2012
MISH'S GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
September 4, 2012
By: Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Central bankers Debating the Limits of Power in Jackson Hole are wondering what's holding back the economy.
"What is holding the economy back? Why is it that we've had such incredibly...Bernanke Has No Clue How QE Works
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 5, 2012
UNEASY MONEY
September 2, 2012
By: David Glasner
Ben Bernanke gave his commentary about US monetary policy at the annual late summer monetary conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. At the 2010 meeting, just after...ISM and Construction Spending Show Weakness
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 4, 2012
As of late any bad economic news has been the "siren's song" for a "crack addicted" market begging the "dealer" for another hit of liquidity injected euphoria. After all, the worse the economy gets for mainstream America the better off Wall Street is. Talk about a...Don't Expect A Recovery Anytime Soon
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 4, 2012
THE ECONOMIST
September 3, 2012
SIGNS of weakness in advanced economies seem to have taken some by surprise. In America, GDP growth slipped in the second quarter of 2012 to a revised figure of 1.7% after growing at a rate of 2% in the first. In Britain, the economy...After Fed Action, Then What?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 4, 2012
THE NEW YORK TIMES - ECONOMIX
September 1, 2012
By: Binyamin Appelbaum
The Fed is on the verge of expanding its stimulus policies. We learned that much during the meetings in Jackson Hole, Wyo. But what may be more interesting is the undercurrent of discussion...Stage For EuroCrisis Resurgence Being Set
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 3, 2012
Now that the summer vacation period for most of Europe is coming to an end - the temporary reign of freedom enjoyed by Mario Draghi and the ECB is over. What we have repeatedly discussed in the past is that while Merkel was away - the mice were playing. ...The Incredible Lightness Of "Hope"
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 31, 2012
“Anyone whose goal is 'something higher' must expect someday to suffer vertigo. What is vertigo? Fear of falling? No, Vertigo is something other than fear of falling. It is the voice of the emptiness below us which tempts and lures us, it is the desire to fall, against...The 3.2 Trillion Question Of Housing And LTV
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 31, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
August 31, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
It is no secret that having failed repeatedly at the trickle down aspect of QE1, QE2, Op Twist 1, Op Twist 2 (and implicitly LTRO 1 and LTRO 2) as it pertains to the man in the street (if not the man in Wall Street, who...PCE - A Tale Of The Consumer
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 30, 2012
As expected, today's release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on personal income and outlays (PCE) came in line with personal incomes rising 0.3% but expenditures rising 0.4%. The bad news was in the downward revision to last month's personal income from a...Central Banks Digging A Deeper Hole
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 30, 2012
FINANCIAL SENSE
August 28, 2012
By: Detlev Schlichter
Last month we entered the sixth year of this crisis, although parts of the media seem determined to continue calling it a ‘recovery’. Wishful thinking. We have been in continuous crisis for half a decade. Doses...Unintended Consequences Of QE
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 29, 2012
FINANCIAL TIMES
August 29, 2012
By: Izabella Kaminska
By now, everyone is familiar with the mantra that QE is [arghh!] money-printing and that a major unintended consequence could be a chronic and uncontrollable inflation. (One could call this the goldbug, Austrian,...Q2 GDP - Nothing Good Happening Here
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 29, 2012
This morning we received the 2nd estimate of the 2nd Quarter 2012 GDP. The good news is that the original 1.5% estimate was revised up to 1.7% which is only slightly lower than the Federal Reserves estimated 2% growth rate for 2012. The bad news is that the increase...Case-Shiller - No Real Price Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2012
MARK HANSON
August 28, 2012
By: Mark Hanson
What happens when...
1) rates drop by 30% YoY allowing the 70% of buyers who use a mortgage to 'pay' 15% more for a house on the same monthly payment;
2) foreclosures as a percentage of total sales drop 25% YoY lifting...Investors Are Skewing Home Prices
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2012
CNBC
August 28, 2012
By: Diana Olick
Home prices finally appear to be catching up with the increase in overall sales pace. That is usually the case, as prices lag sales on the way up and on the way down.
The latest reading from S&P/Case-Shiller, which employs a...QE3 Mechanism Is Broken
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2012
When Ben Bernanke launched QE 2 in 2010 he outlined a third mandate for the Federal Reserve - the boosting of consumer confidence. He stated that the goal of QE 2 was to boost asset prices in order to spur consumer confidence through the "wealth effect" which should...Investing For The Next Recession
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2012
We recently wrote an article entitled "No Recession Now, But When?" which discussed that recessions are part of the normal economic cycle. We stated: "It is an indisputable fact that a recession is coming. For economists, and analysts, the "R" word is as feared and...Pigeons At The Table
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2012
THE DAILY
August 27th, 2012
By: Lance Roberts
The Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing whether it should relax rules governing what companies can say ahead of initial public offerings, following the much debated, and publically scrutinized, debacle that...Santelli Uses The "C" Word
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2012
August 27, 2012
By: Rick Santelli
Interesting commentary yesterday from Rick Santelli on the government's continued stance of supporting the economy through various intervention mechanisms. He does make an interesting point by using the "C" word - counterfeit....Durable Goods And New Home Sales
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2012
In case you did not read this past weekend's missive there were two charts from last week's economic data that are worth bringing to your attention - Durable Goods and New Home Sales.
A Word About Durable Goods Orders
Friday was the release of July’s durable goods...Monday Reading List
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2012
There were quite a few articles over the weekend worth reading. I have compiled a list for you to get you caught up for the week. As the month of August winds down - trading volumes have been non-existent as everyone waits on what is to come from the Eurozone and the...The Market Looks Toppy - Fundamentally And Technically
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2012
COMSTOCK PARTNERS
August 23, 2012
The market is giving signs that it has discounted any possible good news and that the rally is over. Europe has been in one of its periodic, but temporary, quiet periods that has encouraged the market while slipping further into...Why Blodget's Economic Fix Is Wrong
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2012
WSJ - MARKETWATCH
August 24, 2012
By: Diana Furchtgott-Roth
You might be one of the greatest investment analysts of all time, but your article “How to Fix the Economy…In One Simple Chart” shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the causes of America’s economic...Is It Time To Buy Gold?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 24, 2012
It seems like a year ago...wait, it was a year ago that we wrote in our weekly missive that gold had peaked after a parabolic spike stating: "Should I Buy Gold Now? In a one word answer...Are you kidding me – Gold has never been this overbought before...Dance Of Fireflies
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 24, 2012
CUMBERLAND ADVISORS
August 22, 2012
By: David Kotok
The modern Greek odyssey continues with a dance of fireflies. This particular version is dedicated to a different Homer. We are speaking of the late Sidney Homer and his treatise on interest rates. His book, A...Durable Goods - Consumer Weakness Shows
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 24, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
August 24, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
Today's Durable Goods number was blistering, if only on the headline. Coming at $230.7 billion, it was up a whopping $9.4 billion or 4.2%, on expectations of a 2.5% increase. The reason for the surge: the volatile...Chart Of The Day: Confidence Waning
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 23, 2012
This morning my friend Tyler Durden posted a chart showing the Bloomberg Consumer Confidence index versus the S&P 500. That poll, released this morning showed a continued drop in consumer comfort to -47.4 reading. Consumer confidence and sentiment on most all...To The Contrary - QE-3 Is Not Coming Soon
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 23, 2012
On yesterday's radio program (1st hour - Second Half) we discussed the release of the Fed's minutes and why we felt like the market, and the media, had wrongly interpreted the notes. The following is the Bloomberg headlines post the release of the minutes:
FOMC...Three Things That Will Influence The Election
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 22, 2012
I have been asked quite a bit lately about my thoughts on the upcoming election and the recent article by Naill Ferguson has sparked a huge outcry from the liberal left. To be completely honest I really have no clue at this point who will win. However, I think that...Chances Of QE 3 Diminishing
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 22, 2012
TIM DUY'S FED WATCH
August 22, 2012
By: Tim Duy
Related Article: Gold, Dollar and Rates Say No QE 3!
I have made the case that neither the doves nor the hawks that are important for the course of monetary policy. It is the center that is the key, and that...Gallup: Sales, Certainty Keys To Small Business Spending
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 22, 2012
GALLUP
August 22, 2012
By Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist
PRINCETON, NJ -- At least seven in 10 U.S. small-business owners say a better sales outlook, more certainty about their operating environment, and lower federal taxes would make their companies more likely to...15 Ways The Recession Is Shaping Us
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 22, 2012
ONLINE BUSINESS DEGREE
August 21, 2012
The recession is having a pretty obvious effect on many Americans, with millions being affected by job loss, foreclosures, and financial problems that force them to put off major life events like buying a home or getting...No Recession Now - But When?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 21, 2012
There have been a few calls as of late (Hussman, ECRI, Shilling) stating that we are currently in the next recession. Then there is everyone else. While the "optimistic" outlook is always more enjoyable to listen to - the problem is that the current "no...Odds At 90%
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 21, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
August 21, 2012
By: Mark J. Grant
Grant’s Rules
Grant’s Rules have never been more important than they are now. There is Rule #1 that is cast in stone and reiterated nine times to form the bulwark of my thinking which is “Preservation of Capital.”...Corporate Profits Distorts Tax Arguments
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 21, 2012
FINANCIAL TIMES
August 20, 2012
By: John Authers
We will hear a lot about the profit motive over the next three months. Prospective Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential running mate more or less...Janjuah: "Risk Off" Phase Is Coming
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 21, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
August 21, 2012
By: Bob Janjuah
Bob's World: Warning over, time for action
This is a very brief update of my most recent note published on July 25th. Referencing back to this July note the key takeaways were:
Firstly: ‘In terms of markets, the route map...Do You Feel Lucky? Well Do Ya?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 20, 2012
Do you feel lucky? That was the topic of this past weekend's missive as we wrote extensively on the current market environment and the technical setup behind the recent market "buy" signal. That line from Dirty Harry (Click Here for Video) spawned many email...The Monday Morning Reading List
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 20, 2012
There was a lot going on over the weekend worth reading. Here is a listing of the ones that you should be paying attention to.
Caterpillar warns on global uncertainty (FT)
Only 3 years behind the curve as usual: Moody’s warns on California city defaults...Retail Sales Data vs. Retailers
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 20, 2012
THE WEEKLY STANDARD
August 18, 2012
By: Irwin M. Stelzer
“America goes shopping again,” exulted one commentator. “The American consumer is back, big time,” chortled another. “Retail sales increase notably more than expected in July reflecting across-the-board...Thoughts On The Market
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 17, 2012
There is no doubt that the market rally in July and August has been far stronger than we predicted back in June. Yet, that rally has not been based on an improving fundamental backdrop as revenue growth has deteriorated sharply over the last few quarters....Market In Denial
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 17, 2012
COMSTOCK PARTNERS
August 17, 2012
By Comstock Partners
Global growth continues to slow. Of the major economies, the Eurozone is in the worst shape, with output dropping 0.7% in the second quarter. Even the German economy has been plodding along with a rise of only...Eurozone Strategy Update
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 17, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST
August 17, 2012
By: Marc Chandler, Global Head Of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman
In golf, it is said "drive for show and putt for dough". In learning to drive an auto, one is often advised the exact opposite. "Aim high in steering",...The Fear Gauge Goes Quiet
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 17, 2012
WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 17, 2012
By: Spencer Jakab
(Chart by Streettalklive.com)
Wall Street's famous "fear gauge" is scraping along the bottom once again.
Should that, counter-intuitively, spook investors? Not necessarily, although there probably are more...Chasing Yield Can Be Hazardous To Your Retirement
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 16, 2012
Money chasing income. That is a theme we have discussed much recently as an aging population battles an artificially low interest rate environment. The demand for income is driven by an undersaved population rapidly approaching retirement. They have seen years of...Brother, Can You Spare $1.37?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 16, 2012
JP MORGAN
August 15, 2012
By: Kenneth Landon
As we await the latest developments out of the Eurozone and Washington, I take a moment to look back on this very important day in history. If you want to understand current events, then you first have to understand...Housing Recovery? Not Yet.
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 16, 2012
MARK HANSON
August 15, 2012
By: Mark Hanson
"Shadow" and "ghost" inventory with respect to supply is only a part of the problem...a red herring really. One has to look deeper than most "analysts", reporters, or bloggers care to in order to see the true extent of the...Gold, Dollar & Rates Say No QE
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 15, 2012
There is a consensus as of late that the Fed will launch another round of stimulative action in the form of a balance sheet expansion program (Quantitative Easing) by the next FOMC meeting in September. Of course, this was also the consensus before the June and August...Doug Kass: Market Top Is Near
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 15, 2012
THESTREET.COM / REAL MONEY
August 14, 2012
By: Doug Kass
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- What I learned in my investment career is market participants prefer the comfort of crowds rather than the company of the remnants.
Investors and traders, as demonstrated in recent...The July-Sept Rally - In 1932
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 15, 2012
BLOOMBERG
August 15, 2012
By: Phillip Scranton
Stock values had plummeted by July 1932. Yet from July to August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average doubled, a huge leap given that bad news seemed to flow in from all directions.
Other positive reports also surfaced...Killing The 'Stocks Are Cheap' Myth
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 15, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
August 15, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
Each and every day we hear, stocks are cheap - P/Es are low, money-on-the-sidelines, sentiment is contrarian-wise weak, 'it's an election year', and many other anecdotal BTFD-driving broker-based sound-bites. The truth...NFIB - Dear Administration, Are You Listening?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 14, 2012
The National Federation of Independent Business released their monthly small business survey this morning showing a 4th consecutive decline to 91.2 in July from last month's reading of 91.4. Overall, sentiment is deteriorating with the notes from the press release...Paul Ryan And The New Normal
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 14, 2012
WASHINGTON POST
August 14, 2012
By: Mohamed El-Erian
StreettalkLive Note: For related commentary read "The Fly In Ryan's Budget Ointment"
After he was introduced as Mitt Romney’s running mate Saturday, Rep. Paul Ryan proclaimed: “I hear some people say that...Begging For Trouble
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 14, 2012
HUSSMAN FUNDS
August 14, 2012
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Investors remain so addicted to the temporary high of monetary intervention that they continue to ignore very real downturn in global economic indicators, to an extent that we have not seen since the...Are Stocks Front Running Fed?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 14, 2012
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
August 14, 2012
By: Jeffrey P. Snider
Market perceptions of risks to the global economy and general liquidity have diverged among various markets – credit markets in certain regions indicate heightened risk awareness and perceived...Everything Needs To Go Right
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 12, 2012
The following is a condensed version of this past weekend's full discussion which goes into much more technical detail.
Last week I got called in to discuss the recent market rally on Fox Business News. It is always interesting to listen to the other analyst's...Austerity, Debt-Deleveraging And Muddle-Through
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 12, 2012
SOCIETE GENERALE'
August 12, 2012
The debt levels of advanced economies remains unsustainably high - bringing with it the considerable risk of renewed crisis - and while strong growth is the best way to deleverage, this solution appears out of reach for most (if not...Wall Street Expects A Miracle - You Shouldn't
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 12, 2012
WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 13, 2012
By: Jack Hough
U.S. corporate earnings are up about 8% during the second-quarter reporting season. But don’t worry: Wall Street analysts predict the growth rate will quicken again soon, reaching a handsome 13% next year.
On...End Of Week Economic Data Roundup
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 10, 2012
It was a fairly light week of economic data with the stand out reports being consumer credit, wholesale trade and inventories, trade deficit, and productivity. The overriding themes of these reports continues to show a weakening undercurrent of the overall economy but...Surveying The Landscape
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 10, 2012
OUT OF THE BOX via ZERO HEDGE
August 10, 2012
By: Mark Grant
Look around. Take a good long and hard look because the data is becoming unsettling and it is pouring in from all over the world. In China, where a hard landing was thought to have been avoided; one moment...In Defense Of Capitalism
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 10, 2012
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
August 10, 2012
By: Cullen Roche
A reader emailed me this piece tonight calling for the elimination of capitalism based on 6 points. This is an argument that I have seen cropping up increasingly with time so I felt a proper rebuttal was...Want More Tax Revenue? Increase Jobs Not Rates
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 9, 2012
The Obama campaign has amplified its push on increasing taxes on the wealthy and has painted Mitt Romney as a Robin-hood in reverse saying that he wants to take from the poor and give to the rich. The attack on Romney is incorrect as the real truth is that it is the...Blink! U.S. Debt Just Grew By 11 Trillion
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 9, 2012
BLOOMBERG
August 8, 2012
By: Laurence Kotlikoff
Republicans and Democrats spent last summer battling how best to save $2.1 trillion over the next decade. They are spending this summer battling how best to not save $2.1 trillion over the next decade.
In the...Better Economic Data Puts QE In Jeopardy
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 9, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
August 9, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
The surprising economic beats, even as Europe and now China slide, continues, following better than expected initial claims, which were released early as someone broke the news embargo, and trade deficit data. In the week...Tax Plans - Obama vs Romney
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 9, 2012
AMERICAN SPECTATOR
August 8, 2012
By: Peter Ferrara
In a campaign stop at Rollins College in Florida last week, Barack Obama suggested that the middle class should resent Mitt Romney's tax proposals:
"I want everybody to understand here -- he's not asking you to...Market "Hope" Rally Overbought
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 8, 2012
The markets have been rising recently on "hopes" that Central Bankers around the world will unite into one big giant "funding-palooza" and resolve the Eurozone crisis conclusively. While the reality is that world wide bailouts will not resolve what ails the Eurozone -...The True Cost Of GM's Bailout
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 8, 2012
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
August 8, 2012
The administration claims to have saved the U.S. auto industry. What it really saved was the industry's dominant union - and it weakened capitalism in the process.
Michigan is one of those light-blue states where Mitt Romney...Buy The "Dream" - But Sell The Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 8, 2012
ZERO HEDGE
August 8, 2012
By: Tyler Durden
The US stock market is up about 9% since June 1 despite weakening fundamentals for US companies and weakening economies around the world, including in Europe. Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker thinks the reason for the rally is...Are Investors Really That Bearish?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 7, 2012
I have read several articles as of late dicussing the excessive "bearishness" of investors, which from a contrarian point of view, is "bullish" for the stock market. The general position is that investors are so bearish that they are now just hiding in bonds and...Shiller: End of Housing Bust? Not So Fast
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 7, 2012
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 7, 2012
By: Joe Light
As I wrote in the Weekend Investor cover story, "Is the Real-Estate Rebound for Real?," this weekend, many indicators are pointing to a bottom forming in the housing market. New-home inventories are at historic...Fed, ECB Do Nothing - Markets Don't Crash
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 7, 2012
ALHAMBRA INVESTMENT PARTNERS
August 7, 2012
By: Joe Calhoun
There's an old saying on Wall Street that the market will always act in a way that frustrates the majority of market participants. If that is true, then it goes without saying that the majority must be...Chart Of The Day: Follow The Money
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 6, 2012
I posted the following chart in this past weekend's missive "The 'Maybe' Syndrome" where in I stated: "There is one other thing that is bothering me about the recent rally in July - smart money isn’t following it."
The bond market is substantially larger than the...Bullish Data Says No Q.E. Coming
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 6, 2012
The markets have been rallying over the last month due not to expectations of a recovering economy but "hope", yet unfulfilled, of further balance sheet expansion programs from the Fed and the ECB. While each Central Bank meeting and EU Summit has come and...King Report - Monday Squwak Box 08/06/12
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 6, 2012
THE KING REPORT
August 6, 2012
By: Bill King
Asian bourses got trashed on Friday. But just before Europe opened (5.5 hours before Jobs Report) another dubious story about ECB bond buying, appeared. This provoked the desired buying of stocks.
The other provocation...Jobs Report - A Fraud In The Making
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 6, 2012
THE NEW YORK POST
August 3, 2012
By: John Crudele
It's cheatin' time in Washington. I've long believed the Labor Department's monthly employment statistics are horribly inaccurate. So bad, in fact, that they are hardly worth compiling.
But I never thought the...Arthur Laffer: The Real "Stimulus" Record
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 6, 2012
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 5, 2012
By: Authur Laffer
Policy makers in Washington and other capitals around the world are debating whether to implement another round of stimulus spending to combat high unemployment and sputtering growth rates. But before they...BLS - Jobs Increase As Businesses Cut
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 6, 2012